This week, we are headed to TPC Craig Ranch. This is a rather uninspiring course. The field is less exciting than we have grown accustomed to over the past six weeks. All in all, this is one of the events that is more of a “filler” for the season.
It’s not all bad, though. The conditions are always pristine as far as the course itself is concerned. There are plenty of scoring opportunities. The scores tend to go low, so there can be some fireworks. Ultimately, there are plenty of good values in terms of betting, and the possibility of having a large payday is very real here.
Let’s get into The CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks and have another winning week!
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Can Sam Burns Ignite a Win This Week? | The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks 2025
Course Layout
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson is at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. This course has a par of 71 and has 7,414 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens.
Course Strategy
The course plays pretty wide open, allowing bombers to feast a bit. There isn’t much danger or shot shaping required here. The greens are larger than average and tend to be very receptive. Bomb it, stick it close and make your putts. Par-5 scoring is a must, and longer-than-average approaches will be in play on most par-4s. This course is not much to write home about. It tends to become a bit of a putting contest. Bomb and putt? Sounds like a recipe for success.
Building Our Betting Model
- Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
- Driving Distance
- Shots Gained Approach
- Shots Gained Approach 200+
- Shots Gained Approach (175-200)
- Shots Gained Par-5
- Birdie-or-Better Rate
- Bogey Avoidance
- Shots Gained Par-4 (400-450)
- Opportunities Gained
- Strokes Gained Putting
Players To Target for the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson 2025:
Sam Burns (+3000) | ($9,800)
Sam Burns is a seemingly forgotten commodity. I really like how he is setting up for TPC Craig Ranch. Burns has struggled over his career to be a consistent approach player, and though you need to be good on approach on any course, this one may be lenient enough for Burns to pop. He can bomb the ball off the tee at an average of 309 yards. His putting is also on an elite level, ranking fourth in strokes gained over his last 36 rounds. Going back to the approach. While his approach game is shaky at best, he does rate out in the top 20 for opportunities gained. That, coupled with his putting, should be an equation that will work on these large, receptive and relatively flat greens.
Burns hasn’t done anything incredibly noteworthy in quite a while, but in his last start at the RBC Heritage, he finished 13th. With that finish, it shows that he has signs of life. I like the value we are getting on a Tour-proven player who can win. This is a mixed bag of a field, so he has higher win equity than a lot of the golfers at similar odds. I’m going to be early on Burns.
Jake Knapp (+5500) | ($8,400)
Jake Knapp finished eighth in his first visit to TPC Craig Ranch last season. Similarly to Burns, Knapp is sneaky long off the tee, averaging 311 yards per drive. The former bar bouncer has had a somewhat under-the-radar, good season thus far. He is coming off a third-place finish with his partner Frankie Capan at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last week, and he’s looking sharp coming into a similarly generic TPC course.
Knapp struggles with accuracy. Luckily, that is not at a premium this week. He can aim for these wide fairways and incredibly large greens, which helps mitigate his accuracy issues. Knapp is an excellent putter when he gets it rolling and makes a ton of birdies, rating fifth in birdie-or-better rate. In what will likely become a “bomb-and-putt” style tournament, I like Knapp being let loose without the fear of worrying about where his ball lands.
Jesper Svensson (+8000) | ($7,400)
In continuation of the bombers who can putt narrative, we come to Jesper Svensson. The 29-year-old smashes the ball, averaging 314 yards off the tee. He, like Knapp and Burns, struggles with accuracy across the board. As noted, though, TPC Craig Ranch will not penalize wayward play like other courses. These huge fairways should pose no issue for Svensson, who, despite his accuracy issues, already rates ninth in strokes gained off the tee.
The greens are massive, and Svensson will have shorter irons in hand than a lot of the field, which should help him dial in his opportunities on an otherwise shaky iron game. He is ninth in this field for strokes gained putting and can get absolutely scorching hot with the flat stick. That putter enabled him to be ninth in the field for birdie-or-better rate. So far, he hasn’t done anything special this season, but this course sets up extremely well for what he’s good at: driving, putting and making birdies by the truckload.
Other Outrights to Consider:
- Scottie Scheffler (+280): I know it’s short, but it’s Scottie Scheffler, and he can win anywhere, anytime. This field is good, but it’s not elite. Scheffler is on a level above everyone here.
- Ryan Gerard (+6000): Ryan Gerard is not what I would consider a bomber, but he scores like crazy and is lethal with a putter. He’s having a fantastic season, and I think he keeps it rolling here.
- Gary Woodland (+9000): Gary Woodland at 90-1 in this field seems like an extreme value. He can rip the driver and play carefree here. We’ve seen Woodland pop, and I think this could be the week he gets back on top.
- Matti Schmid (+11000): Matti Schmid rose to the top in the modeling at last year’s event, and he’s near the top again this year. He rates out sixth in the model, and this place fits his game to a tee. It wouldn’t surprise me, in the least, to see him compete for the win here.
- Karl Vilips (+12000): Karl Vilips is undoubtedly an elite next-generation golfer. He already has a win under his belt, and we have been betting on him every week. This is an insane value for the talent this golfer has. I see a world where he will be in the final pairing come Sunday. Do not sleep on Vilips – this week or any week to follow!
PGA DFS Plays for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Scottie Scheffler ($13,300)
- Sam Burns ($9,800)
- Taylor Pendrith ($9,600)
- Si Woo Kim ($9,400)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Jordan Spieth ($10,500)
- Sungjae Im ($10,000)
- Ben Griffin ($9,200)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Will Zalatoris ($8,800)
- Ryan Gerard ($8,600)
- Jacob Bridgeman ($8,500)
- Jake Knapp ($8,400)
- Taylor Moore ($7,500)
- Jesper Svensson ($7,400)
- Gary Woodland ($7,400)
- Sami Valimaki ($7,300)
- Karl Vilips ($7,200)
- Matti Schmid ($7,000)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Rasmus Hojgaard ($8,900)
- Tom Kim ($8,700)
- Matt Kuchar ($7,300)
- Cameron Davis ($7,100)
- Charley Hoffman ($7,000)
- Zach Johnson ($7,000)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Antoine Rozner ($6,800)
- Aldrich Potgieter ($6,800)
- Brian Campbell ($6,800)
- Carson Young ($6,700)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Emiliano Grillo ($6,800)
- Adam Svensson ($6,800)
- Mark Hubbard ($6,700)
- Nate Lashley ($6,500)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins The CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Aryanna Frank – USA Today Sports*
