John Deere Classic DFS Golf Picks

First Tee to Last Call: Irish Goodbye

As we all know, going out and having cocktails is one of my favorite pastimes. I don’t always shut the bar down. Not to say I haven’t seen the lights come on a few times though. As I have gotten older and in turn, my accomplices have gotten older, I have begun to notice a bit of a phenomenon. The Irish Goodbye.

I’ve heard it referred to as many different things over the years but the most common is either “ghosting” or the “Irish Goodbye”. 

Ghosting to me is a standalone expression. Anyone under the age of 40 is probably familiar with the term. Ghosting is when you leave an outing without any formal goodbye. I generally use the term ghosting when one of my friends has been over-served to the point that they have passed on to a new plane of existence. Hence, they should go home and nurture their return to being a human without causing a scene. 

While it sounds like an aggressive level of drinking, oftentimes I have found these victims to be capable of survival but less than capable of adequate communication skills. Sometimes the only option is to fade away into the night without incident. I can appreciate people that have the wherewithal to call it a night before they become a liability to the party. 

In contrast, the Irish Goodbye, in my opinion, is far less aggressive of a departure. While fading into the night is still a hallmark of this goodbye method, it usually is far less predictable. I reserve the Irish Goodbye phrasing for friends that are definitely catching a good vibe but seem completely with it and engaged. Suddenly, poof! They’re gone. No warning signs, no embarrassing build-up, just one minute you’re having a good time next minute you’re gone. I liken it to leaving on a high note. 

I, unfortunately, do not fall into one of these categories. I’m part of the Minnesota Goodbye culture. I had no idea what this was before living in the Midwest. I’ll explain. 

The Minnesota Goodbye is not typically caused by drinking. This is in reference to leaving any sort of gathering. To execute a Minnesota Goodbye you speak to literally everyone you know notifying them that you’ve had a great time and will be heading home. This process takes anywhere from 10 minutes to several hours depending on how many people are gathered. 

I, for whatever reason, feel the need to let everyone in the building know that I’ve had plenty of drinks and will be heading back to the homestead. I will normally do this with a drink in my hand and depending on the person I’m saying goodbye to I may get roped into having one more shot before leaving. The main issue with this method is that you have recognized you should leave and instead of doing that promptly you linger continuing to drink more. The outcome is never good. 

My advice is to cultivate a hybrid. Make a group announcement at your table and head for the door. Don’t be me. No one cares that you’re leaving, certainly, they recognize you should be. Don’t linger. Make a fashionable exit and get to recovering. 

This week’s PGA tournament is a lot like a Minnesota Goodbye and needs to be more like an Irish one. The field is horrible, the course is boring and quite honestly no one cares. That being said, if you’re going to throw money at this (you can and should just donate it to me haha) I would go light on DraftKings this week or save your money for the next week. The outcome is very unpredictable and the chance of anyone nailing this is pretty low. 

John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run

The course is a par-71 playing at about 7,100 yards. Players are on Bent Grass tee to green this week. There are a lot of elevation changes here, which to me is maybe the only notable part. The tournament tends to be a birdie fest and I would guess the winning score will be somewhere around 22 to 25 under par. Dylan Frittelli is your previous champion from 2019. The event was scratched from the rotation last year due to COVID-19. 

Some Metrics I’m Looking at this Week

  • Driving Accuracy
  • Shots gained putting
  • Birdie-or-better percentage 
  • Greens in regulation gained
  • Opportunities gained

John Deere Classic Picks

Daniel Berger ($11,100)

Daniel Berger is by far the best player in the field. He’s No.1 in my model and for good reason. His approach game is on point and he is in the top 5 for opportunities gained and birdie-or-better percentage. He’s an excellent driver of the ball and an adequate putter. In a field this bad I recommend playing the best guys you can and he’s the singular one. 

Hank Lebioda ($8,400)

I’ve been off and on Hank Lebioda for a month or so. I love the accuracy and the putting. He’s also in the top 10 for most of the stats I looked at this week over the last 24 rounds. Lebioda is No. 2 in my model overall just behind Berger. The price seems more-than-reasonable for the upside. He’s going to be chalky this week. But as I said, play the good players. 

Scott Stallings ($7,400)

No.4 in my model this week, Scott Stallings rates out in the top 15 for driving, putting, approach and birdies or better gained. He’s fresh off a 25th place at the Rocket Mortgage where he gained strokes in almost every aspect. He’s not a guy I play often, but he’s showing some life and I think the price is reasonable on him as well.

Other Golfers I Like this Week

Kevin Streelman ($9700)

Troy Merritt ($8700)

Maverick McNealy ($8800)

Doug Ghim ($8000)

Dart Throws 

Kyle Stanley ($7900)

Vincent Whaley ($6800)

“Last Call” Dart Throw of the Week

Satoshi Kodaira ($7000)

Thanks for reading, and good luck this week!

I use for analytics and statistical modeling. If you’re looking for an edge check them out!

Conor Coughlin @Cough_DFS