This is the final tune-up before The Masters Tournament, and we are hanging out in the Lone Star State for one more week for the 2025 Valero Texas Open.
Despite having some decent players every year, this is one of my least favorite events. Most players who qualified for The Masters use it to fine-tune some mechanics, which often leads to pretty uninspiring golf. The course itself is fairly bland, too. In my opinion, the anticipation for The Masters really overshadows anything noteworthy that happens here each year.
Nonetheless, it’s time for the Texas Open, and we’re here to help you win some money, so let’s get into it.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Gary Woodland Will Stay Hot | 2025 Valero Texas Open Picks
Course Layout
The Valero Texas Open is held on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. The course has a par of 72 and is 7,438 yards. The fairways and greens are Bermuda grass but are overseeded with Rye and Poa.
TPC San Antonio is not the most memorable or exciting venue. The course itself is relatively straightforward. Distance is helpful as long as you are accurate, but this really boils down to the second shot. We say that most weeks, but the greens are the hardest part of this course. They tend to be super firm and tough to stick.
The tree-lined fairways can wreak a bit of havoc with players who get a little squirrely off the tee. Some of the more correlated stats tend to be approach and play around the green. Putting can be tricky, so we want decent putters, but it’s not a non-negotiable at the Oaks Course. Similar to last week, albeit on an easier track, the players to watch this week are good ball strikers who don’t give strokes back around the green.
Building Our Betting Model
- Shots Gained Approach, no particular bucket needs to be well-rounded
- Shots Gained Tee to Green
- Driving Distance
- Opportunities Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- Short-Game Putting
- Par-5 Scoring
- Par-3 Scoring
- Ball Striking
- Shots Gained Around the Green
- Shots Gained Putting
Players to Target for the Valero Texas Open 2025:
Keegan Bradley (+2500) | ($9,500)
Keegan Bradley has played decently here over the years, but his last start at the Texas Open was in 2022 when he finished eighth, so it’s been a minute. Bradley has been playing solid golf this year and we probably don’t mention him enough. He has been a very solid ball striker, rating seventh in this field over the last 36 rounds. Over his last five starts, he gained an average of two strokes on approach and his somewhat unreliable putting has been flat.
I mentioned needing adequate putting earlier, which is exactly what you will get with Bradley. His putter has been immaculate in his last two starts, gaining an average of 1.9 strokes. His around-the-green game can be suspect at different times, but he has kept it in check and found ways to get up and down consistently this season. Although Keegan Bradley at 25-1 normally wouldn’t be as attractive, in this field, I think he has all the win equity of some of the guys shorter than him on the board.
Daniel Berger (+3000) | ($9,200)
I love Daniel Berger at the Valero Texas Open. He is elite from tee to green, gaining an average of 4.6 strokes in his last five starts. Berger has been impressive thus far this season and he has shown flashes of the player we all know he can be. I’m looking for excellent ball strikers and elite-level play around the green, and Berger fits the bill. This season, he has only lost strokes around the green once and putting twice. The short game has been as steady and elite as anyone on tour.
Berger isn’t going to pop as a bomber in anyone’s modelling, but he does average just over 300 yards per drive off the tee, so he’s not the shortest guy around. Distance can give players an edge here but it’s not make or break. His iron player and elite short game are plenty to carry Berger to a win this week.
Gary Woodland (+5000) | ($7,800)
It would have been a lot better for my wallet if Gary Woodland could have won last week at the Texas Children’s Open, where his odds were double what we are getting this week. However, I’m still betting on him and with 50-1 odds, it still seems like a value. Woodland is teetering on the verge of winning, and like last week, now is not the time to quit him. Last week, we saw what can happen when Gary gets hot. He had an amazing week on approach, gaining four strokes to the field and an even more impressive eight strokes gained putting. His putter may come back down to earth this week but his approach game should stay hot.
TPC San Antonio is set up for someone like Woodland, who has a little extra pop off the tee and an elite iron game. Last week’s setup was great but this week is an easier course and Woodland has a hot hand. The books think so too, cutting his number in half. Take the 50-1 and be pumped to see Gary get his first win back from brain surgery. How can you not root for this guy?
Outrights to Consider:
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2200): I get a little nervous about Hideki anytime he might have somewhere better to be. Augusta right around the corner gives me a little pause since he is always liable to withdraw. Assuming he plays the whole tournament, he is one of the most elite ball strikers here, if not the best.
- Bud Cauley (+4500): Bud Cauley’s number keeps getting shorter, so get it quick. Cauley is someone we thought would break back out this season. He took his time getting going, but the fire is stoked, and he is popping up more and more each week.
- Rico Hoey (+6000): rolled the dice on Hoey a couple of times this year and haven’t had much success. Rico Hoey’s short game is very volatile, but he is the best in this field tee-to-green. It’s hard to overlook someone who is elite with woods and irons and just needs a flat week in the short game department in order to win.
- Isaiah Salinda (+10000): Isaiah Salinda is popping up more and more as well. He is a player who can’t seem to put it all together in the same week. He has an elite skill set; we need him to find positive numbers in the metrics for four rounds. Salinda was close last week with an 11th-place finish and green across the board, except for around the green. He lost 1.1 strokes there, so he isn’t far off. Salinda is definitely trending in the right direction for a golfer at triple-digit odds.
- Jesper Svensson (+10000): This is a bit of a feel play. Jesper Svensson has the right skill set to be successful at TPC San Antonio. He bombs it, keeps it out of trouble, and has a top 20 short game.
Bonus Prop Bets to Consider:
- Hideki Matsuyama: Top 10 Finish (+220)
- Corey Conners: Top 10 Finish (+210)
- Daniel Berger: Top 20 Finish (+140)
DFS Plays for the Valero Texas Open 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Ludvig Aberg ($10,800)
- Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900)
- Keegan Bradley ($9,500)
- Daniel Berger ($9,200)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Tommy Fleetwood ($10,700)
- Jordan Spieth ($9,700)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Bud Cauley ($8,300)
- Mav McNealy ($8,100)
- Gary Woodland ($7,800)
- Kurt Kitayama ($7,600)
- Rico Hoey ($7,600)
- Isaiah Salinda ($7,300)
- Jesper Svensson ($7,200)
- Matti Schmid ($7,000)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Tony Finau ($8,800)
- Tom Kim ($8,400)
- Matt Fitzpatrick ($7,800)
- Justin Rose ($7,300)
- Beau Hossler ($7,200)
- Max Homa ($7,000)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Kevin Roy ($6,800)
- Aldrich Potgieter ($6,800)
- Antoine Rozner ($6,700)
- Danny Walker ($6,500)
- William Mouw ($6,400)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Joel Dahmen ($6,900)
- Erik Van Rooyen ($6,800)
- Webb Simpson ($6,600)
- C.T. Pan ($6,600)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the Valero Texas Open.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Erik Williams – USA Today Sports*
