We are headed to Florida to get the “Florida Swing” up and rolling! PGA National is always live to show its teeth.
It is home to one of the most difficult three stretches on Tour, known as “The Bear Trap”; holes 15, 16 and 17 play in the top five of most difficult stretches on Tour every year. The sibling for this wild stretch of holes lives on the front nine, and holes five through seven are no walk in the park either.
This course is full of trouble. Carnage is live this week.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Our Model Likes A Surprise In Gary Woodland at the Cognizant Classic 2025
Course Layout
The 2025 Cognizant Classic is at the PGA National Resort Champions Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. This Par-71 course has 7,147 yards with Bermuda fairways and greens.
PGA National is a tough course. As noted, the two three-hole stretches on this course can derail a round quickly. The fun doesn’t stop there. There are over 60 bunkers firmly in play here, with multiple water hazards and out-of-bounds on 15 of the holes being played. We talk about second-shot courses almost weekly at this point, but this Jack Nicklaus design further emphasizes the need for a great accuracy game.
Many holes here will take the driver out of the players’ hands and force them into woods or long irons off the tee. The forced lay-ups leave players with many long approaches into greens surrounded by bunkers and hazards. Accuracy through the whole bag is paramount here. Course history and knowledge does help this week. We have a less-than-star-studded field, so the studs that we do have could rise to the top.
Weather is something to keep an eye out for later in the week, as it seems the wind will pick up, which will further compound some of the tricky course management needed this week.
Building Our Betting Model
Building blocks for the Cognizant Classic 2025:
- Shots Gained Approach
- Fairways Gained
- Opportunities Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- Scrambling
- Shots Gained Par-4’s (400-450 and 450-500)
- Approach from 150-200 Yards
Players Our Model Target for the Cognizant Classic 2025:
Gary Woodland (+5500) | ($7,400)
I may have been a little early in proclaiming Gary Woodland’s comeback at the Genesis Invitational. He had a few weeks off and is still rating incredibly well in this field at sixth overall. Woodland had been tracking toward a win until the slight derailment at the Genesis. He lost strokes in virtually every category you can that week. It was just a bad week, which happens.
However, I’m undeterred in my thinking with him. He is going to make a charge this year, and it would make a ton of sense to do so at a PGA National course.
He has tied for eighth and fifth in his last three starts here. I like Woodland on a course where he isn’t forced to use his length. He can take less than the driver and still be effective, especially considering he’s in the top 10 for all the approach metrics I looked at this week. He is not a prolific putter by any stretch, but Bermuda is his best surface. Mitigate the long stick and the short stick risk with Woodland and you have a pretty good recipe for that comeback win I called for this season to start in Florida this week.
Lucas Glover (+6000) | ($7,800)
Lucas Glover gets a really bad rap for his putting. This week, it turns out he is actually in the top 35 in this field for strokes gained putting. So, if we can all learn to accept that, you quickly run out of reasons to avoid betting on him. He is excellent on approach, as he is second overall in this field. Glover also excels on long Par-3 scoring, which will be critical here as all of the Par-3’s plays are over 175 yards. Additionally, he scores well on the Par-4 ranges we will see this week.
Glover is at the top of the field in bogey avoidance and 11th in opportunities gained. He’s giving himself plenty of scoring opportunities and not giving strokes back to the course. He rates out first for me overall this week. Let’s all accept that Lucas Glover no longer “sucks at putting,” and he’s a hell of an approach player, which can win some money. He is a great value in this field.
Nico Echavarria (+10000) | ($7,300)
I have bet Nico Echavarria on and off for a few years now. He really does have a profile that makes sense on a lot of courses. He’s challenging to get right, but he does compete frequently, so you have to be patient when betting on him. This is a week to bet on him. He has a win, two runner-ups and a sixth-place finish over the last four months, and he has done that fairly well under the radar. Echavarria is better than three-quarters of this field in almost every metric.
While he falls into the “elite” approach play bucket, the range from 175-225 is where Echavarria shines. He will see many approach shots from that range at PGA National as a shorter hitter. He’s an elite putter, rating second overall in this field for strokes gained putting. His best surface is Bermuda, so I expect he will be gaining at a rate that outpaces most on the greens this week. Not that he needs much help on the greens, but it certainly doesn’t hurt that he is third in the field for opportunities gained, and he will convert on those scoring opportunities more than most here.
Echavarria is 100-1 for a reason; he’s often tough to get right. However, I think I’m right this week. He can win, he can compete, and this course is suitable for him.
Other Cognizant Classic 2025 to Consider:
- Shane Lowry (+2000): It’s hard to argue with three T5s in his last five starts here. He’s a grinder playing great golf. I love the number on a talent like Shane Lowry.
- Russell Henley (+2500): Russell Henley has a good history here in his own right. He has also been playing great golf recently and is a cut above most of this field. His steady and consistent performance fits this course well.
- Luke Clanton (+5000): I’m a man of my word. If Luke Clanton is teeing it up, I will be betting him. He is onne of the future stars of the Tour. It’s not when he will win but how many times he will win.
- Henrik Norlander (+17000): Henrik Norlander had an otherworldly approach week in Mexico, gaining 10.2 strokes. If he can continue that this week, he will be in contention.
- Karl Vilips (+20000): I might have been just a week early on Karl Vilips. He struggles off the tee, and that was his undoing in Mexico. I like him here where we can take the driver out of his hand a little more and go to work on approach. This golfer is going to be a star. This number is criminal. Go and rob the books.
Bonus Prop Bets to Consider:
- Nico Echavarria: Top 10 Finish (+800) and Top 20 Finish (+360)
- Shane Lowry: Top 10 Finish (+200)
- Russell Henley: Top 10 Finish (+240)
- Luke Clanton: Top 20 Finish (+225)
- Karl Vilips: Top 20 Finish (+650)
DFS Plays for the Cognizant Classic 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Russell Henley ($10,700)
- Shane Lowry ($10,500)
- Daniel Berger ($9,900)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Sungjae Im ($9,800)
- Min Woo Lee ($9,200)
- Keith Mitchell ($9,100)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Jordan Spieth ($8,600)
- Ben Griffin ($8,500)
- Michael Kim ($8,400)
- Andrew Novak ($8,000)
- Lucas Glover ($7,800)
- Luke Clanton ($7,700)
- Gary Woodland ($7,400)
- Nico Echavarria ($7,300)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Cam Young ($8,800)
- Austin Eckroat ($8,100)
- Brian Harman ($7,700)
- Chris Kirk ($7,300)
- Jake Knapp ($7,300)
- Tom Hoge ($7,100)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Andrew Putnam ($6,900)
- Antoine Rozner ($6,800)
- Frankie Capan ($6,600)
- Henrik Norlander ($6,500)
- Karl Vilips ($6,100)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Michael Thorbjornsen ($6,900)
- Mark Hubbard ($6,700)
- Webb Simpson ($6,400)
- Emilliano Grillo ($6,300)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the Cognizant Classic 2025
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Kiyoshi Mio – USA TODAY Sports*
