This week, we are headed south of the border to VidantaWorld in Vallarta, Mexico. Players will be on a new surface and within a new set of coastal weather conditions to navigate. This should be a substantially easier track than what we have seen recently, and VidantaWorld has proven to be a predictable course for projections.
This is one of those events that could produce a first-time winner. The level of talent here is definitely a step below the last month’s worth of play. In looking for the best bets, we want to find golfers that are above average in distance off the tee and have some accuracy from a long approach, as well as a handy wedge game. Putting hasn’t seemed to matter here, so there are many ways this game can go.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Our Model Loves Kurt Kitayama at the 2025 Mexico Open
Course Layout
The 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, Vidanta Vallarta, is a Par-71 course with 7,456 yards of fairways and greens of paspalum. The course itself is wide open and favors the long-ball hitters. The most penalizing aspect of VidantaWorld may prove to be the weather. The course is also littered with bunkers and water hazards, but historically, these haven’t posed much of a threat.
Building Our Betting Model
Building Blocks for the Mexico Open 2025:
- Driving Distance
- Shots Gained Approach
- Shots Gained Scrambling
- Proximity 175-200 yards
- Proximity from 200+ yards
- Proximity from 100-125 yards
- Birdie-or-Better Rate
- Opportunities Gained
Players Our Model Targets for the Mexico Open 2025
Kurt Kitayama (+2200) | $10,200
Our model loves Kurt Kitayama this week; he is the clear-cut number-one favorite based on our weighted stats. The California native finished tied for second in his only start at VidantaWorld in 2022. His approach game is suited perfectly for this course. He is best from the longer ranges outside of 175 yards, and there are plenty of holes like that on this course. He isn’t the longest golfer off the tee, but at 18th overall in this field, he certainly isn’t short either. Kitayama is scrappy, and that may come in handy if the conditions deteriorate.
He is first in bogey avoidance and first in long par-4 and par-5 scoring. I don’t typically love him in tournaments that require a lot of scoring, but the course sets up so perfectly for how he scores that it is impossible to ignore him here. The icing on the cake is that Kitayama is normally a pretty sub-standard putter except for on paspalum. It is the only surface on which he gains strokes, with around .5 strokes gained per round. For a player who normally loses strokes, you have to love the advantage for him. If there’s a knock on Kitayama, it’s the number itself, as +2200 is pretty short for someone as volatile as him. I’m trusting the numbers and the course fit, though. It’s perfect for him; +2200 is better than not having him on the card.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+5000) | ($8,100)
Just behind Kitayama in both distance and ranking in our model is Nicolai Hojgaard. He is the lesser-favored of the Hojgaard brothers in Mexico this week, but Nicolai fits better at this course than Rasmus, in my opinion. Nicolai Hojgaard hasn’t had the best luck at VidantaWorld in his two starts, but I think that changes this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard is ninth in the field in strokes gained on approach, a rank that spikes to second when isolating to distances beyond 175 yards. His off-the-tee game has struggled over the last 10 starts, but with wide-open fairways here in Mexico I don’t think he will find the same challenges. We have mentioned the likelihood of high winds, and if they do kick up, he historically plays better as the conditions become more challenging. The Dane doesn’t rack up birdies at the rate as others in this field, but he is one of the best at avoiding bogies. At more than double the odds of Kitayama, you have to like Hojgaard as a very similar profile for the course.
Antoine Rozner (+7500) | ($7,300)
Antoine Rozner is a much better approach player than even where he ranks in our model, which is second. He would be the clear-cut top golfer in approach if it wasn’t for an uncharacteristic 1.9 strokes gained in his last start; he averages nearly double that over his last 20 starts at 3.4.
The overall approach game is elite and his best yardages fall in the two buckets I am focused on: 175 yards plus and 125 yards and shorter. He is a ridiculously good player in the wind as well. The 32-year-old is almost three strokes better in high wind than in calm wind. At +7500, Rozner is priced appropriately given his recent form, but if he brings the elite iron game of he is capable, and the wind picks up, he could prove to be an extreme value on this board.
Other Mexico Open Outrights to Consider:
- Akshay Bhatia (+1600): Akshay Bhatia is beyond creative with his irons and can hit any shot required. The number seems short, but he is coming off of a ninth-place finish at the Genesis Invitational. So the form is there.
- Harry Hall (+2800): We have been on Harry Hall all season, so why quit on him now? He scores a lot and often! Being top of the field for birdie-or-better rate might come in handy.
- Alex Smalley (+4000): Alex Smalley makes birdies and he doesn’t give strokes back. He also rates inside of the top 15 for all the approach buckets we considered.
- Chan Kim (+7000): Chan Kim is scrappy. He has the ability to make it from anywhere inside of 60 yards and he can get hot with short irons. He ranks fifth in this field for par-4 scoring over 500 yards.
- Frankie Capan (+9000): Frankie Capan can get hot. He has struggled with accuracy, but VidantaWorld may suit his eye being wide open. He’s also a solid play in the wind. This kid is going to be good, so buy early and often.
- David Lipsky (+20000): David Lipsky has the ability to play his irons at an elite level. He rates fourth in the overall approach. Despite being short off the tee, he scores well on long par-4s and par-5s, ranking inside the top 20 for both.
Bonus Prop Bets to Consider:
- Kurt Kitayama: Top 20 Finish (+100)
- Nicolai Hojgaard: Top 20 Finish (+190)
- Antoine Rozner: Top 10 Finish (+550), Top 20 Finish (+260)
- Frankie Capan: Top 10 Finish (+650), Top 20 Finish (+300)
DFS Plays for the Mexico Open 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Akshay Bhatia ($10,700)
- Kurt Kitayama ($10,200)
- Harry Hall ($9,300)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000)
- Rasmus Hojgaard ($10,100)
- Patrick Rodgers ($9,500)
- Beau Hossler ($9,100)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Alex Smalley ($8,700)
- Justin Lower ($8,500)
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,100)
- Mac Meissner ($7,900)
- Michael Thorbjornsen ($7,700)
- Chan Kim ($7,500)
- Antoine Rozner ($7,300)
- Joe Highsmith ($7,200)
- Frankie Capan ($7,100)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Jake Knapp ($8,600)
- C.T. Pan ($8,300)
- Eric Van Rooyen ($7,500)
- Sam Ryder ($7,400)
- Lanto Griffin ($7,300)
- Emiliano Grillo ($7,000)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Quade Cummins ($6,900)
- Nick Hardy ($6,600)
- David Lipsky ($6,500)
- Paul Waring ($6,500)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- K.H. Lee ($6,900)
- Ryo Hisatsune ($6,800)
- Nate Lashley ($6,700)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the Mexico Championship 2025
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Matt Krohn – USA TODAY Sports*
