The Genesis Invitational will have a slightly different setting this year. We are headed back to Torrey Pines South due to the wildfires in California. Torrey Pines will look familiar, as it hosted the Farmers Insurance Open just a few weeks ago. It may be the same in spirit, but I suspect we will see tougher conditions, both with the course itself and the weather.
The course will most likely feature different pins and adjusted tee positioning from what we saw at the Farmers. The rough has reportedly grown out since our last visit. Golfers have taken to social media to demonstrate just how deep it is, as dropping a golf ball from knee height is enough to make the ball vanish into thin air or deep grass as it were. Torrey is an ever-demanding course; you must possess distance and accuracy, as having one without the other may prove not enough.
The weather will be in play this week, with rain in the forecast Thursday and Friday accompanied by winds that may be over 15-20 mph. Those winds could increase and become gusty. For best results, keep an eye on the weather and tee time splits to try to find an edge.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Our Model Predicts Rory McIlroy Continues His Greatness at the Genesis Invitational 2025
Course Layout
At 7,600+ yards, Torrey Pines South is one of the longest courses the golfers will see all year. It is a par-72 with Poa Annua greens that can wreak havoc on approach and with the putter.
Torrey Pines consistently ranks in the top five most difficult courses on Tour. There are more approaches from the long iron range than anywhere else on Tour, demanding distance and accuracy. We talk about second-shot courses frequently; Torrey Pines is undoubtedly a second-shot course. Being in position is critical to setting up approaches on these difficult greens. Poa can play tricky depending on the time of day; it blooms and grows later in the day, which will cause these greens to play differently throughout the tournament. The course is stingy with birdies, so I like playing the opposite narrative this week and looking for golfers who avoid bogies rather than those who rack up birdies.
Building Our Betting Model
Building Blocks for the Genesis Invitational 2025:
- Driving Distance
- Bogey Avoidance
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Fairways Gained
- Greens in Regulation Gained
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Approach from 175-200 and 200+
- Strokes Gained Putting (Poa)
- Strokes Gained Scrambling
Players Our Model Target for The Genesis Invitational 2025
Rory McIlroy (+700) | $10,900
Rory McIlroy put the Tour on notice by entering the season with a bang and implying that this is his season. His play at Pebble Beach was vintage McIlroy, gaining strokes in every measurable stat and showing the ability to have restraint when needed. It was the most balanced version we have seen in quite some time.
McIlroy leads the field in driving distance and gained 6.2 strokes off the tee in his first appearance this season. His approach game looked to be dialed in, gaining 3.7 strokes there. His putting has been a bit sketchy at times, but he managed to gain 4.3 strokes at Pebble Beach. McIlroy is the perfect mold for this course when he is locked in. I love everything we have seen from him right now, and he’s bound to make another statement in La Jolla, Calif., this week.
Taylor Pendrith (+4000) | $9,000
Taylor Pendrith popped up for me this week. He is in the top seven of this field in distance off-the-tee and the accuracy of his approach game. The consistency of these aspects of his game makes him a top target in my mind. Over his last five starts, he has averaged 3.9 strokes gained off the tee and 2.2 strokes gained on approach. His somewhat volatile putting is hovering around flat, but putting doesn’t have to be perfect, given the turf here. Even the best putters have difficulty excelling at Torrey Pines. You can’t be a bad putter, but if you can keep from losing strokes, you can compete.
One metric that also jumped off the page to me is Pendrith’s strokes gained on par-5s and longer par-4s, as he is No. 1 overall in this field. On a course that requires you to gain when you can gain and then hold onto what you have, I think Pendrith can take full advantage of his skillset.
Gary Woodland (+11000) | $6,600
I’m excited about this upcoming Gary Woodland resurgence. He is so close. Looking at his last three starts, he has been inside the top 25 and has not lost strokes on any of our key metrics. He is plenty long off the tee and has gained nearly two strokes in every one of those last five starts. The approach game of Woodland is sixth overall and ramps up to second overall from distances above 175 yards. He is in the top 10 for strokes gained on long par-4s and par-5s and is seventh in this field for bogey avoidance.
Woodland, much like Pendrith, nails off the tee and on approach, but he is not always the world’s best putter. However, in his last two starts, he is almost 0.5 strokes better than Pendrith in regards to that statistic. Are they the same player? No, but the stats are similar coming into the event. If you like either call, I recommend betting them both, as they both set up very nicely here. The days of Woodland being in triple digits are nearing an end. I’m going to take a few more shots while I can with this kind of value.
Other Genesis Invitational Outrights to Consider:
- Collin Morikawa (+1600): Accuracy and long irons? Sounds like Collin Morikawa to me.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+3500): Tommy Fleetwood is playing steady elite golf. He gets overlooked all the time, and he is always alive, especially in more of a grind.
- Seamus Power (+15000): Seamus Power is better on Poa, better on tough tracks and better in bad weather and wind. We’ve checked all those boxes on conditions at Torrey Pines.
Bonus PGA Prop Bets to Consider:
- Taylor Pendrith: Top 5 Finish (+600), Top 10 Finish (+275)
- Gary Woodland: Top 10 Finish (+600), Top 20 Finish (+230)
- Rory McIlroy: wire to wire (+4000)
DFS Plays for the Genesis Invitational 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Rory McIlroy ($10,900)
- Collin Morikawa ($10,000)
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100)
- Taylor Pendrith ($9,000)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000)
- Scottie Scheffler ($12,300)
- Justin Thomas ($10,100)
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,800)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Shane Lowry ($8,800)
- Russell Henley ($8,600)
- Robert Macintyre ($8,100)
- Viktor Hovland ($7,900)
- Max Greyserman ($7,200)
- J.J. Spaun ($7,000)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Tom Kim ($8,900)
- Jordan Spieth ($8,500)
- Tony Finau ($8,200)
- Thomas Detry ($8,000)
- Cam Young ($7,400)
- Wyndham Clark ($7,300)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Daniel Berger ($6,900)
- Aaron Rai ($6,700)
- Gary Woodland ($6,600)
- Lucas Glover ($6,500)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($6,800)
- Billy Horschel ($6,700)
- Max Homa ($6,500)
- Nick Dunlap ($6,100)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the Genesis Invitational 2025!
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: John David Mercer – USA TODAY Sports*
