Home Articles Our Model Says J.J. Spaun Stays Hot at The American Express 2025
Our Model Says J.J. Spaun Stays Hot at The American Express 2025

Our Model Says J.J. Spaun Stays Hot at The American Express 2025

by Conor Coughlin

We’ve hit the mainland and are headed to Palm Springs, Calif., for The American Express 2025. This is a full-field tournament with the standard top-65 and ties cut mark. The added twist this week is that the tournament is played on three courses, so the cut will come at the conclusion of Saturday after all golfers have played all of those courses. The Sunday final round will be held on the TPC Stadium Course.

The three courses are as follows:

  • TPC Stadium Course: The most difficult of the three that will be played twice (Par 72, 7,180 yards) on Bermuda Grass
  • La Quinta Country Club: Par 72, 7,060 yards on Bermuda Grass
  • Nicklaus Tournament Course: Par 72, 7,159 yards on Bermuda Grass

None of these courses are tremendously difficult. There is a lot of sand in play and water hazards throughout. Being shorter courses, there is not a clear advantage for longer hitters. The real challenge is being consistent and precise. Make a lot of birdies over the four days, and don’t give many back. There isn’t any strong correlation to player type here; just be well-rounded and consistent.

(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)

PGA Betting CTA

Our Model Says J.J. Spaun Stays Hot at The American Express 2025

Building Our Betting Model

Building Blocks for The American Express 2025:

  • Strokes Gained Par-5
  • Strokes Gained Par-3
  • Strokes Gained Putting
  • Strokes Gained Approach 150-175 
  • Strokes Gained Approach 125-150 
  • Birdie-or-Better Rate
  • Bogey Avoidance 

The American Express 2025 PGA Betting Model

Players Our Model Loves for The American Express 2025

J.J. Spaun (+5500) | $8,600

It should be no surprise that I’m going right back to J.J. Spaun this week. On a set of courses that will again require accuracy and an excellent approach game. Spaun rises to the top of my model this week yet again. We almost hit him last week at 90-1, so we are buying back in a bit lower, but I’m still very high on him here.

Spaun was on fire on approach, gaining 8.1 strokes last week. His putting was excellent as well, gaining 1.5 strokes to the field. He is taking the opportunities presented to him from great approach shots and converting them at a higher rate than almost anyone in this field over the last 36 rounds. I’ll be riding with Spaun again at The American Express 2025!

Harry Hall (+4000) | $8,800

Here’s another playback from last week. Harry Hall was knocking at the door. His approach game let him down a bit, but he carried himself by putting out of his mind. He actually lost strokes on approach but managed to grab 6.2 strokes with the putter. I believe both stats will level out a bit this week, but that’s not a bad thing.

Hall is still No.1 in the field for birdie-or-better rate over the last 36 rounds, which means he finds a way. I liked him last week and love him this week. We have more emphasis on the approach ranges he excels at and even less of an emphasis on distance, and we know you need birdies in bunches. It seems like it sets up pretty damn good for Hall in Palm Springs, Calif., this week!

Kurt Kitayama (+3000) | $8,700

Kurt Kitayama figured something out last week: Putting. This is something he has gained since back in mid-July. It wasn’t a large gain, .08 strokes, but it’s enough for me to take a look at him here. He is one of the players I often mention, “If he can just have a flat putting week and do what he normally does everywhere, he’ll win.”

Well, I’m banking on him carrying his good fortune forward to this week back in California, where he is very comfortable. Last week, his approach game took a dive, which he has been otherwise elite at in the last six months. Mark my words:  If the approach rebounds here, he will win The American Express 2025. 

Other The American Express 2025 Outrights to Consider:

  • Sam Burns (+1600):  Sam Burns is on a bit of a heater right now and finished sixth here last year, gaining 9.9 strokes tee to green. 
  • Tom Kim (+2800):  Short track, short approach? Tom Kim is the best in the field when a short iron is in his hand.
  • Max Greyserman (+3000):  Max Greyserman is first in strokes gained total and second in both strokes gained putting and birdie-or-better rate. He’s converting opportunities and in great form!
  • Eric Cole (+6000):  I loved Eric Cole last week, and he showed up. It’s not time to jump off the “Cole Train” just yet.
  • Lucas Glover (+8000):  Lucas Glover, like Cole, was a favorite of mine last week. I liked what I saw and am going back to the well.

Bonus Prop Bets to Consider:

  • Harry Hall: Top 10 Finish (+350)
  • Eric Cole: Top 10 Finish (+500)
  • J.J. Spaun: Top 5 and Top 10 Finish (+900 and +450)

PGA DFS CTA

DFS Plays for The American Express 2025:

High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)

  • Sam Burns ($9,800)
  • Tom Kim ($9,300)
  • Max Greyserman ($9,200)

High-Tier Fades: ($9,000+)

  • Patrick Cantlay ($9,600)
  • Wyndham Clark ($9,400) 
  • Cam Young ($9,000)

Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)

  • Harry Hall ($8,800)
  • Kurt Kitayama ($8,700)
  • J.J. Spaun ($8,600)
  • Eric Cole ($8,300)
  • Ben Griffin ($7,800)
  • Mac Meissner ($7,400)
  • Lucas Glover ($7,200)

Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)

  • Brian Harman ($8,200)
  • Patrick Fishburn ($8,100)
  • Nick Taylor ($8,000)
  • Sepp Straka ($7,600)
  • Rickie Fowler ($7,500)
  • Keith Mitchell ($7,400)

Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)

  • Justin Lower ($6,900)
  • Frankie Capan ($6,800)
  • Patton Kizzire ($6,600)
  • Tim Widing ($6,300)

Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)

  • Matt Kuchar ($6,900)
  • Emilliano Grillo ($6,700)
  • Charley Hoffman ($6,700)
  • Jake Knapp ($6,300)

DraftKings CTA (2024) = Large


Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins The American Express 2025!

Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!

*Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports*

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