We are heating up and heading to Innisbrook Golf Resort for the 2025 Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course has the fangs to give the players fits.
Finding solid golfers that go through the entire bag has been the formula as of late and will continue to be the strategy this week. Copperhead will require as much accuracy as we can find. The big numbers are always in play here, especially during one of the most infamous home stretches in golf, “The Snake Pit.”
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Our Model Says Sepp Straka Survives “The Snake Pit” | 2025 Valspar Championship Picks
Course Layout
The Valspar Championship is at Innisbrook Resort with the Copperbrook Course in Palm Harbor, Fla. It is a Par-71 with 7,340 yards. The fairways are Bermuda, and so are the greens, although they are overseeded with Poa.
Copperhead can be a brutal test of all skills. The theme of the “Florida Swing” continues: You need the whole bag to succeed. Tee shots require accuracy, with doglegs forcing shots to be shaped in both directions. Tree-lined fairways and deep rough add to the difficulty off the tee. The fairways play very tight and will punish players who get wayward. Approach shots will be coming from 175+ more often, not due to forced layups. Long iron play is at more of a premium again this week. Water also comes into play on over half the holes. Holes and greens are well-protected by the bunkers throughout the course.
Speaking of bunkers, the already tight tree-lined fairways are further pinched by fairway bunkering. One of the toughest stretches outside of the majors, “The Snake Pit,” is the home stretch for golfers. Holes 16, 17 and 18 will be the site of carnage and drama all week long. Another unique feature of Copperhead is the par layout featuring four par 5s and five par 3s. This makes par-5 scoring a premium more so than typical weeks.
Building Our Betting Model
- Shots Gained Ball Striking
- Shots Gained Short Game
- Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
- Shots Gained Putting (Bermuda)
- 3-putt Avoidance
- Fairways In Regulation
- Greens In Regulation
- Bogey Avoidance / Double Bogey Avoidance
- Par-5 Scoring
- Approach from 175-200+
Players Our Model Target for The Valspar Championship 2025:
Sepp Straka (+1600) | ($10,000)
Sepp Straka is playing some seriously good golf coming into Copperhead. Straka is a player that I have a hard time getting right. Everything points to this being an easy Straka week. All the reasons to play him are amplified as he has drawn the better tee time split with the aggressive weather moving on Thursday afternoon. Accuracy is at a premium at Copperhead, and Straka is seventh in this field for strokes gained ball striking and third in greens in regulation gained.
He has the short and approach game needed to win the 2025 Valspar Championship. The Austrian has the scoring ability to win as well, as he rates out second in par-5 scoring and 15th in par-3 scoring. Copperhead is unique in that it has four par-5s and five par-3s. The second-highest player in my model sets up nearly perfectly this week.
Luke Clanton (+7000) | ($8,500)
In keeping true to my word, if Luke Clanton is playing, I’m betting on him. This kid is elite and is going to be a huge star. He is the top player in my model this week. Clanton eclipses many of the big boys in strokes gained balls striking. He is also the top in my model in strokes gained off-the-tee. The accuracy he possesses is second to none. The only unknown with Clanton is how he will weather the storm. He got a bad tee time draw on Thursday. The hope is he doesn’tt lose any strokes and then bring his style of aggressive scoring to the weekend.
The 21-year-old will be tested this week but has the game to win here.
Neal Shipley (+20000) | ($6,500)
Neal Shipley of “Full Swing” fame on Netflix is making his first start of the 2025 season. Aside from the fact that I love Shipley as a human, he sets up really well here. For a player at 200-1 to rate out 13th in my model, you know he has some skills. His ball-striking stats are all in the top 20 in this field. His par-5 scoring is also at the top of my model. The Pittsburgh native is an accurate bomber off the tee, and that in itself will give him shorter irons in hand and add to the potency of an already lethal short iron game.
Shipley has drawn a morning tee time on Thursday, which should allow him to take aim and score when the opportunity presents itself. He’s not just a funny and loveable personality; he can play some seriously great golf. The odds of +20000 are entirely too long in this field. If you don’t remember Shipley from The Masters or haven’t seen “Full Swing,” then go look him up because he’s a name you should know for the future of golf.
Outrights to Consider:
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1000): I can’t quit Tommy Fleetwood now. I have been calling for a win during the Florida swing and I will continue to believe it could be coming. I admit, this one was tough to pull the trigger on at such low odds. Fleetwood is now the outright favorite. Though it’s somewhat deserving, it’s still a really low number.
- Xander Schauffele (+1200): Xander Schauffele’s game hasn’t exactly been confidence-inspiring since returning from his rib injury, but he is still the most elite player in the field. He also drew the good tee time split. Double-digit odds in this field seem a little criminal. I’ll take the ride and trust he can piece it all back together this week.
- Michael Kim (+2800): Coming off a missed cut last week, Michael Kim’s confidence is a little down. Take advantage of the books. The odds of +2800 are a good value for the hottest player on Tour right now. There is no reason he should be almost triple the odds of Fleetwood.
- Will Zalatoris (+4000): This is more of a feel-play, as I am early on Will Zalatoris. He can get hot, and when he does, his ball-striking can be off the charts. The putter has been volatile, but the last time he teed it up he gained 3.5 strokes on the greens.
- Karl Vilips (+25000): Keep betting the ladder on Karl Vilips! I don’t know why he is priced the way he is, but he is live to be a huge payday with these odds. Vilips is only two weeks removed from winning in Puerto Rico. He is going to win and win often. These odds are marrive value on the boards!
Bonus Prop Bets to Consider:
- Sepp Straka: Top 10 Finish (+160)
- Luke Clanton: Top 20 Finish (+320)
- Karl Vilips: Top 5 Finish (+4500), Top 10 Finish (+2000), Top 20 Finish (+800)
DFS Plays for the Valspar Championship 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Xander Schauffele ($10,500)
- Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300)
- Sepp Straka ($10,000)
- Will Zalatoris ($9,300)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Justin Thomas ($10,800)
- Tom Kim ($9,200)
- Jordan Spieth ($9,100)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Michael Kim ($8,900)
- Lucas Glover ($8,800)
- Luke Clanton ($8,500)
- Kurt Kitayama ($7,600)
- Joe Highsmith ($7,300)
- Max McGreevy ($7,200)
- Kevin Roy ($7,100)
- Rico Hoey ($7,000)
- Karl Vilips ($7,000)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Viktor Hovland ($8,400)
- Cam Young ($8,000)
- Sahith Theegala ($7,800)
- Billy Horschel ($7,400)
- Matt Kuchar ($7,100)
- Joel Dahmen ($7,000)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Andrew Putnam ($6,900)
- Matti Schmid ($6,800)
- Antoine Rozner ($6,800)
- Neal Shipley ($6,500)
- Frankie Capan ($6,400)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Gary Woodland ($6,900)
- Aldrich Potgieter ($6,800)
- Carson Young ($6,600)
- Kris Ventura ($6,600)
- Webb Simpson ($6,500)
- Emiliano Grillo ($6,300)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the 2025 Valspar Championship
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA Today Sports*
