We are back in beautiful Hawaii for the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club this week. This is the first full-field event with a cut. The course is more difficult and the field is less talented than that of The Sentry last week.
The course itself plays at 7,044 yards and is a par-70 with Bermuda Grass throughout. The field is 144 players with the standard top-65 and ties making it to the weekend. The late Grayson Murray won here last year in a playoff, posting -17 for the tournament. The course is slightly more demanding, with over 80 bunkers in play, as well as water coming into play on several holes.
We like this course to be more about plotting your second shot. Accuracy on approach is paramount. Bombers could have a bit of an advantage as long as they keep the ball in play and not too far out of position. Par-5s are reachable by almost all of the players in two shots, making them live for some eagles. Putting is a very sticky stat here. You have to be at least serviceable with the flat stick.
The weather may factor in, with coastal winds potentially kicking up. The weather can change rapidly here, so it’s best to check back closer to tee off. If the weather takes a turn for the worse, utilizing golfers who play well in coastal winds could have an edge.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Our Betting Model Predicts a Longshot Wins the Sony Open 2025
Building Our Betting Model
Building Blocks for the Sony Open 2025:
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Par-4
- Strokes Gained Par-5
- Strokes Gained Scrambling
- Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda)
- Good Drives Gained
- Approach from 100-150
- Opportunities Gained
- Birdie-or-Better Rate
Hammering home the point… play accurate golfers here. Players who have distance and accuracy with a complimentary short iron game are set up nicely here at Waialae. Putting can be streaky for some, but targeting players who historically fare well on Bermuda grass to round out your player type should give you an edge.
Players Our Model Loves for the Sony Open 2025
Luke Clanton (Play of the Week) (+3000) | $8,400
If Luke Clanton is playing, I am playing him. This kid will be a huge star and is possibly the best amateur golfer we have seen in decades. With only seven starts, he has four T10s, including a runner-up at the John Deere Classic last season and a runner-up at the RSM Classic. Amazingly, Clanton had an abysmal tee-to-green performance at the RSM and still managed to take runner-up.
His normal game should be on display this week at the Sony Open, and he is on Bermuda, which is his best putting surface by far. An accurate bomber who gains strokes like crazy on the dance floor. He is an extreme value in both the PGA betting and DFS markets this week!
Harry Hall (+4500) | $8,100
Harry Hall seemingly knocks at the door every time he plays. He is coming off of another strong performance at the Sentry, finishing eighth. Hall is not generally an “elite” approach player but he is bordering on that distinction from 125 yards and in. He is exceedingly better from that range.
For a player who is No. 2 in the field in birdie-or-better rate to be deadly on short approaches as well, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Hall take the Sony Open by storm. Hall rates out second for me coming into this week, and the parts of his game that hold him back are mitigated here. Don’t miss out!
J.J. Spaun (+9000) | $7,200
J.J. Spaun has been playing some sneaky good golf over his last 11 starts. He only has one missed cut in that span. The 34-year-old is not someone I would qualify as a bomber, but his accuracy makes up for that, and specifically, he rates inside the top 10 in the short-iron approach metrics. The majority of the second shots will see short irons in hand, so I like Spaun here.
I usually struggle with Spaun because he sets up so well for these short courses with an emphasis on approach and has often burnt me. Still, the form is there, and it is really tough to poke a hole in his game right now. I like him much better as a PGA DFS play. However, at +9000 outright for the No.1 player in my model is just too enticing to pass up!
Other Sony Open 2024 Outrights to Consider
- Hideki Matsuyama (+900)
- Corey Conners (+1400)
- Davis Thompson (+4000)
- Eric Cole (+7500)
- Aldrich Potgieter (+20000)
Bonus PGA Tour Prop Bets to Consider
- Luke Clanton: Top 5 (+600), Top 10 (+300)
- Eric Cole: Top 10 Finish (+550)
- Aldrich Potgieter: Top 10 (+1200)
PGA DFS Advice for the Sony Open 2025:
High-Tier Plays (Over $9,000)
- Hideki Matsuyama ($11,000)
- Corey Connors ($10,200)
- Tom Kim ($9,800)
High-Tier Fades (Over $9,000)
- Russell Henley ($9,900)
- Byeong Hun An ($9,400)
- Sahith Theegala ($9,100)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,400 to $7,000)
- Davis Thompson ($8,500)
- Luke Clanton ($8,400)
- Ben Griffin ($8,200)
- Harry Hall ($8,100)
- Eric Cole ($7,500)
- Lucas Glover ($7,300)
- J.J. Spaun ($7,200)
Mid-Tier Fades: ($8,000 to $7,000)
- Kurt Kitayama ($8600)
- Brian Harman ($8300)
- Chris Kirk ($7800)
- Matthew McCarty ($7,600)
- Adam Hadwin ($7,200)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $7,000)
- Patton Kizzire ($6,900)
- Jake Knapp ($6,900)
- Ben Silverman ($6,700)
- Tim Widing ($6,400)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $7,000)
- Erik Van Rooyen ($6,900)
- C.T. Pan ($6,900)
- Henrik Norlander ($6,800)
- Charley Hoffman ($6,700)
- Joel Dahmen ($6,700)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the Sony Open 2025!
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Joseph Cress – USA TODAY Sports*
