Welcome back to your direct line of fantasy football and NFL betting advice, our mailbag article series powered by the Fantasy Football Advice Network. For this week’s mailbag, we stray from fantasy for some Super Bowl talk! Can you believe there are only three more weeks of the regular season?
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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Week 16 NFL Betting Advice Mailbag
What Are Your 2024 Super Bowl Picks Right Now? Lay Them on Me! — @WishList
You heard the man. We’ve got a little twist today. Everyone’s locked in for the fantasy football playoffs (or Christmas movies), so why not head to the betting board for some 2024 Super Bowl picks?
I’ll focus on the top teams for this week’s mailbag. Let’s get to it.
Bills, Bills, Bills
What’s the key to MVP-level play on the field? Get engaged.
The Detroit Lions have been the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX for a month. However, the Bills’ 48-42 victory over them squarely places “Bills Mafia” as the favorites to win it all. Their Super Bowl futures jumped from +700 to +425. Josh Allen is playing the best football of his life as the potential runaway MVP. He has scored 10 touchdowns in the previous two weeks despite losing to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14. James Cook is cooking (no pun intended) with 13 touchdowns and 828 yards.
However, Buffalo’s defense remains somewhat of a concern, as they gave up 84 points despite scoring 92 in the past two weeks. They are ranked 12th in opposing points per game but 28th in opponents’ dropback success rate (50.7%) since Week 10. These defensive numbers might not cut it against Patrick Mahomes (don’t count him out despite his ankle sprain), Lamar Jackson or even the Justin Herbert-led offense with Jim Harbaugh calling the shots. Still, I like the trend they’re going with a complete offense and Allen playing at a high clip
Fly, Eagles Fly
“I used to pray for times like this to rhyme like this / So I had to grind like that to shine like this.”
Ok, I’m done (in a matter of time).
Meek Mill is not the only one balling in Philadelphia. The Eagles are shining despite some “Real Housewives”-like drama on and off the field. The Eagles’ Super Bowl future is tied at +475 with the Detroit Lions. Philadelphia’s odds slightly shortened after defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-13 in Week 15. The trio of Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown get most of the attention and credit. Barkley’s 11-touchdown, 1,688-yard season is a big key to the Eagles’ 12-2 record, but the defense does not get enough credit.
The defensive unit is ranked No. 1 in yards allowed per game and tied with the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos in least points allowed per game. Brandon Graham’s Brown-Hurts friendship comments aside, this is a team you do not want to face.
They’re healthy and hungry… I’d be careful.
Is This the Lions’ Year?
The Lions are first in the NFC but with several questions looming. They are +475 to win it all and I originally had them winning the 2024 Super Bowl over the Kansas City Chiefs. Keyword: “had.”
They have 22 players on Injured Reserve (IR), with 12 out for the season. This includes some big-name players on defense. They lost Aidan Hutchinson in Week 6 and have shown no signs of slowing down, but the injuries are still piling up. Alex Anzalone is out for the year, and they lost Alim McNeill, Carlton Davis and David Montgomery for the year in Week 15.
The “Sonic and Knuckles” duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery is a huge part of the Lions’ offensive success, along with Jared Goff‘s 30-touchdown season. However, Gibbs proved his capability of handling a full workload as a rookie. I have faith.
At the beginning of the season, I was all-in, but with the injuries piling up, I’m not any longer. However, I can’t count out their heart.
Don’t Count Out Chiefs Kingdom
We can debate how lucky the Chiefs have been all season, but that’s for another day. They have the fourth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +600. They are 13-1, with their only loss against Buffalo. The two-time defending champions are also currently AFC’s No. 1 seed. Still, they do not resemble a powerhouse like previous Kansas City rosters. They have scraped by in several games, including a blocked field goal against the Broncos in Week 10 and Isaiah Likely‘s missed endzone toe-tap in the opener.
The Chiefs’ defense is a huge reason they are here today. They allowed the fifth-least yards and points per game this season with the fourth-highest pressure rate. A Chris Jones and Nick Bolton-led defense with Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator will do that for them.
Patrick Mahomes did suffer another high-ankle sprain in Week 15. That’s something to keep an eye on, especially with little rest in-between this Saturday’s game against the Houston Texans and their Christmas showdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Still, it sounds like he will still be the starter.
Travis Kelce has shown signs of slowing down, but the running back duo of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt is helping the team’s offense. A three-peat might still be in the works if they can pick it up on that side of the ball. Don’t count out Mahomes and Andy Reid.
My Updated 2024 Super Bowl Prediction
First, a sleeper team to watch in both conferences is the Minnesota Vikings (+1200) and the Los Angels Chargers (+5000). I’m not sold entirely on either team, given my concerns with Sam Darnold against the NFC and the AFC’s overall strength. However, these are some good futures to keep an eye on. Sleeping on head coaches Kevin O’Connell and Jim Harbaugh would be a mistake. The Pittsburgh Steelers (+2500) are my true sleeper team, though, depending on the health of T.J. Watt.
My current 2024 Super Bowl pick: Go ahead and save this to roast me online later, but I like Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles, with Bills Mafia finally breaking the Super Bowl curse. This is the year.
Check out all of our Week 16 fantasy football content:
- Fantasy Football Whiplash! | Week 16 News & Notes (2024)
- Week 16 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
- Week 16 NFL Betting Advice Mailbag (2024)
- Week 16 Shore Thing Sleepers (2024)
- Week 16 In the Scope Targets (2024)
- PropKings: NFL Week 16 (2024)
Thanks for reading our Week 16 Fantasy Football Mailbag, powered by the Fantasy Football Advice Network. Check out more of our fantasy football and other written content here at In-Between Media, or head over to our YouTube channel to get your fix via video.
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*Photo Credit: Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports*
