“PropKings” is an article series revealing our staff’s best prop bets across the NFL, College Football, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This write-up features my favorite NFL Week 16 player props.
The weekend is here, and the NFL Playoffs are firmly in the crosshairs for many teams. While some worry about seeding and others work to make the field, players will try to bring their best performances to the table. Last week’s 2-2 record was good (not great), but we’re still over .500 collectively! Check me out on X/Twitter/Bluesky for a few extra free picks throughout the weekend!
This edition only includes Sunday player prop bets. For Saturday, you’re on your own! Let’s see what Vegas has in store for us to take advantage of.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bets of the Week (2024)
Jameson Williams (WR, Detroit Lions) | Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jameson Williams is always a deep-ball threat whenever he lines up. Along with that comes inconsistency. The key to the Lions unlocking Williams is (you guessed it) the long ball. In fact, in games where he scored on a long touchdown, Williams is averaging 86.8 yards per game with five scores. However, in games where they are unable to exploit the defense with a surprise attack, he averages just 44.14 yards.
The Bears have allowed 11 touchdowns on the entire season to wideouts – a testament to the performance of the secondary in 2024. When these two teams met in Week 13, Chicago surrendered just 149 yards total to Detroit’s wide receivers. Williams, in particular, had a tough time with 28 yards on five catches and a long reception of eight yards. That, combined with Jared Goff‘s trust in the aging Tim Patrick (15 targets in the last two games), means Williams will likely be left out in the cold as Jahmyr Gibbs takes advantage of Chicago’s soft rush defense.
RELATED: Week 16 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
Aaron Rodgers (QB, New York Jets) | Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)
It feels like every time Aaron Rodgers gets on the field, he won’t come off until he’s tossed for at least two scores. So why are the oddsmakers offering plus-money on 1.5 touchdowns just as he gets a team that has been susceptible to the pass all season? Los Angeles has surrendered two-plus touchdowns seven times this season, and just two weeks ago, Josh Allen ate them alive for three passing scores to go with three runs to paydirt.
Rodgers has seemed nonplussed by the Jets’ desire to establish the run game with Breece Hall and frequently audibles out of those formations. Just last week, the quarterback and his favorite target, Davante Adams, were on the same page in lighting up the Jacksonville Jaguars. That game marked Rodgers’ ninth time this season of throwing for multiple scores. Two passing touchdowns are the rule, not the exception. For their part, the Rams have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in seven of 14 games on the season.
Rico Dowdle (RB, Dallas Cowboys) | Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys will be tasked with keeping pace at home with a red-hot Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have won four straight. Cooper Rush is no stranger to throwing the ball a lot for the Cowboys.
Similarly, Rico Dowdle is no stranger to targets. He’s had over five in a game five different times and multiple targets in nearly every other contest. Dowdle has beaten this 14.5-yard prop no less than six times in his last seven games, and this game should be no different. Tampa Bay will jump out to a lead, leaving Cooper Rush to attempt upwards of 30-35 passes, often dumping it to his running back in the open field. Dowdle has been playing too well of late to take a backseat now.
Bonus Bet: Jayden Daniels (QB, Washington Commanders) | Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
Best of luck with all of your bets this weekend. Brick by brick, we build!
Check out all of our Week 16 fantasy football content:
- Fantasy Football Whiplash! | Week 16 News & Notes (2024)
- Week 16 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
- Week 16 NFL Betting Advice Mailbag (2024)
- Week 16 Shore Thing Sleepers (2024)
- Week 16 In the Scope Targets (2024)
- PropKings: NFL Week 16 (2024)
Thanks for checking out my favorite NFL Week 16 prop bets! Track me down on Twitter/X @BuyAndSellYou for more fantasy football and NFL betting content.
*Photo Credit: Brett Davis – USA TODAY Sports*
