Week 16 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Sleepers for Playoffs (2024)

Last week, the fantasy football playoffs really played the wild card in “Wild Card Weekend.” There were multiple injuries around the board, and apparently, if you were a receiver with “oo” in your name, it meant 0.0 points. Yeah, we’re looking at you Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper and Darnell Mooney. So, if you advanced and survived last week, congrats! We only have two more weeks (or three more for those “sickos”) to win that championship!

As always, I’ll recap last week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.” There was a big emphasis in that article. I had three players from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Los Angeles Chargers game. While Bucky Irving played, Sean Tucker got some action because it was a 40-17 blowout, putting up -1.4 points under projection. I said Baker Mayfield could bake, and he was baking some fantasy points, scoring 12.62 points over his projection! I also did not care if Ladd McConkey was or wasn’t going to play; I liked Quentin Johnston scoring a touchdown. With the help of his trip to pay dirt, he scored 4.5 points over his projection! We also minorly whiffed on Kendre Miller with -0.8 and majorly missed on Cole Kmet at -3.9 and Ray-Ray McCloud III with -6.6. The good outweighed the bad, as we finished with 4.42 points over projection!

Hopefully, things won’t be as crazy as last week, but we still have the same result! So, how about we jump into Week 16’s edition of “Shore Thing Sleepers” to help with your start/sit decisions?

Fantasy Football Start/Sit Consideration: Week 15 Sleepers

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)

This game is special and is on Saturday. So, how about the C.J. Stroud-led AFC South Champions show how special they are against the AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs? In previous iterations of “Shore Thing Sleepers,” I noted how Stroud always seems to do better against divisional opponents, and it shows.

So, why would I choose Stroud, knowing he has not performed well in these games, scoring under 12 fantasy points against non-divisional opponents in his last five games? That’s because the Chiefs have been struggling against non-divisional quarterbacks this season. Last week, Jameis Winston was the first quarterback played since the Chiefs’ bye that put up a stinker against them.

In the last five non-divisional games, including Winston’s subpar performance, quarterbacks are averaging 240.6 total yards and 1.4 total touchdowns for 16.4 fantasy points. Without factoring in Winston’s performance, the four quarterbacks all scored 16.5+.

I think Stroud starts the weekend off right and shows that Winston’s lousy performance against the Chiefs was just a fluke.

Running Back

Tank Bigsby (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Why ask for a big tank for Christmas when you can settle for Tank Bigsby? The former Auburn Tiger is healthy and has started to carve out a role in this Jaguars’ offense lately. In the past two games, Bigsby has seen double-digit carries and has 42+ rushing yards to boot.

While we’re on the subject of tanks, the Jaguars face the Raiders, who are “Tanking for Shedeur Sanders.” Las Vegas has also struggled against running backs, especially in the last two games. The Raiders have allowed a running back duo to have 43+ rushing yards and 4.3+ fantasy points in those games.

With Bigsby being a powerful back, he can provide fantasy points in what has turned into a great matchup for him.

Blake Corum (Los Angeles Rams)

This is not a typo. Blake Corum’s rookie season is not what many of us were expecting. However, he is starting to bubble for some fantasy points, even though his role is limited behind Kyren Williams. I think we might see a breakout game coming from him.

While Corum has not scored over 4.5 fantasy points in any game this season, he has come very close recently. He has produced 20+ scrimmage yards and four-plus fantasy points in two of his last three games. The Jets have struggled against running back duos since their Week 12 bye. Two of the three games since have seen the Jets allow a running back duo to have 42+ scrimmage yards and 4.2+ fantasy points.

I know those numbers look very similar to Bigsby’s, but that’s because the Jets faced the Jaguars last week! These numbers also come from running backs with 11 or fewer carries. This fits Corum very well, as the 24-year-old has not seen more than eight carries in a game this season.

Sean McVay uses the rookie running back to keep Kyren Williams a little fresher into this playoff push. If the Jets are struggling to stop the run, how about sharing the wealth a little bit? Sorry, Williams managers; We Corum managers are down bad.

Wide Receiver

Elijah Moore (Cleveland Browns)

You know when you get that Christmas present you’re so excited to open, and it just turns out to be basic clothes? That’s how I felt when Elijah Moore’s quarterback went from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR). I don’t mind the gift of having a capable quarterback, but there was just an elite upside with Winston. The move is understandable, as Winston was benched for his interception troubles in a lost season.

Now, with a new quarterback, everybody is immediately looking to bench Moore. I understand; Moore has only two targets this season with DTR throwing the ball. Both targets came in Week 7, which happens to be the same opponent this week, the Bengals. This will be in different circumstances, though, as DTR is coming in as the starter, not the backup, replacing Deshaun Watson as he did in Week 7.

Most of Moore’s 10.1 fantasy points in Week 7 came with Winston under center. However, seven games have now passed, and the Bengals have allowed a 7.3+ receiver duo in five of those games, four going for double-digits!

If you’re worried about target share, David Njoku is injured with a hamstring and might miss a second straight game, and Cedric Tillman is still in concussion protocol. Those were DTR’s top two targets! If they’re out, he has to look elsewhere. Also, in three of the last five games, the Bengals have allowed a receiver with three or fewer targets to score a touchdown, two of them having 29+ receiving yards. So, why can’t Moore break out for a touchdown?

While the news of Winston being benched bummed most fantasy owners, there’s still hope in some magic!

Tank Dell (Houston Texans)

This damn “sophomore slump” is ruining the chemistry between Tank Dell and Stroud. In the last four games, with no Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins returning, Dell is averaging 2.5 receptions on 4.5 targets for 43.7 yards and 7.3 fantasy points per game. That won’t cut it.

What will cut it? How about the Chiefs allowing a 13.8+ receiver duo in two of their last three games? Dell is also the only Texans receiver since Week 9 to have a rushing attempt. Now, that might not sound important, but hear me out. Since Week 8, the Chiefs have seen six different receivers with a rushing attempt and a target. Those six receivers averaged 8.7 fantasy points. What makes it even sweeter is that four have scored seven or more fantasy points and three have been in the double-digits.

While Dell’s been struggling this season, I think we can see a glimpse of what we saw in his rookie season this weekend. While it might not be a big-reception game, it could be a big-play game, and it only takes one big play to change the course of the game/season.

Tight End

Tucker Kraft (Green Bay Packers)

Just because Tucker Kraft has one sub-par performance does not mean we can drag his name to the ground. He has looked sharp in his last four games, with averages of three receptions on four targets, 44.7 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns for 10.7 fantasy points. That’s some serious cheddar!

This week, Kraft and the Packers face the Saints on “Monday Night Football.” The Saints have allowed 11 different tight ends this season to have four-plus targets against them. Only one has not scored over seven fantasy points, and that was backup TE for the Browns, Jordan Akins. Don’t worry, though; in that same game, David Njoku had nine receptions for 81 yards.

These 11 tight ends averaged 5.2 receptions for 60.6 yards and 11.8 fantasy points. That’s not all, either! Zach Ertz was also on pace for four receptions for 50 yards against the Saints last week but then suffered a concussion.

Everybody has a bad game, but it’s how you bounce back from that performance that matters. With the Saints’ troubles against the position, I like Kraft bouncing back this week, just like the kip-up he did against the Lions in Week 14.

Check out all of our Week 16 fantasy football content:

Thanks for reading this week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.” If you’re looking for more fantasy content like this or need help with the last-minute fantasy football start/sit decisions for your roster, you can find me on Facebook at “Fantasy Sports Start or Sit’Em Questions,” Twitter/X @FSSOSEQ or on BlueSky!

*Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro – USA TODAY Sports*

Ben Siebert

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Week 16 Shore Thing Sleepers (2024)