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Week 14 Fantasy Football Advice Mailbag
Should I Start Caleb Williams or Russell Wilson This Week? — @Jzamudio24
No context is needed, but happy “Byermageddon.” We’re basically entering playoffs mode. However, we’ve already reached that point of the season where you sing NSYNC’s “Bye Bye Bye” with many teams’ off weeks.
Let’s get into it.
Caleb Williams‘ Outlook
Caleb Williams’ rookie season has been more roller coaster-like than anticipated. The No. 1 overall draft pick started his NFL career by going 14-for-20 and 93 yards in a win over the Tennessee Titans. He started the season 1-2, then won three games in a row. However, ever since their bye week, the Bears have not won a game. Still, things changed after the Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Since Thomas Brown has taken over play-calling duties, Williams has been QB6 in fantasy points per game. During that span, the Bears have also been ninth in passing yards per game, 12th in passer rating and 21st in highly accurate throw rate.
One thing to note is Williams’ instant improvement after Waldron was fired on Nov. 12. Numbers never lie, but they do not tell the whole truth. Williams has been on fire the past two weeks despite not picking up a win. He threw for 596 yards and five touchdowns while adding 72 yards on the ground in Weeks 12 and 13 combined. Teams typically play inspired football after a coach is fired. The Bears ultimately let Matt Eberflus after last week’s Thanksgiving game, which could help the former USC Trojan’s growth even further.
The Bears face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14. Since Week 8, the 49ers have allowed the fewest passing yards per game, the 14th-lowest passer rating, the fifth-fewest fantasy points via passing and the third-lowest yards per attempt. The 49ers allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Still, the 49ers have also been hit by a terrible season-long injury bug, so it could be a solid opportunity for Williams. I don’t expect the young QB to continue his hot streak, but this matchup is something to watch as the Bears will face the Vikings, Lions and Seahawks to end the fantasy football season.
Russell Wilson‘s Outlook
“Let Russ cook.” Russell Wilson missed the Pittsburgh Steelers’ first six games due to injury but has successfully transitioned in his return. He is 5-1 with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions so far and has scored over 19 points in three games. Wilson has been mostly up and down fantasy-wise but is QB13 in points per game this season. He had a monster game in Week 13 against the Cincinnati Bengals with a three-touchdown, 414-passing-yard performance.
Wilson currently ranks second in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating and third in hero throw rate. The Cleveland Browns are a tough defense but are not the 2023 version, as they are in the middle of the pack against opposing quarterbacks, allowing 16.9 points per game. The Browns’ secondary is concerning, and Pittsburgh’s weather conditions are currently favorable. Since Week 8, Cleveland has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt and the 11th-highest passer rating.
The Steelers face a tough schedule to close out the fantasy football season after the Browns with matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. However, I expect the former Wisconsin Badger to keep the Steelers competitive while being a good low-end QB1 option.
The Verdict
You could go either way, honestly. Williams does not have as much to play for compared to Wilson, but a strong finish would help the rookie going into next season. The 49ers still have a tough defense compared to the Browns, so I would start Wilson with his hot streak going into Week 14.
I’m confident he will keep up his play (not necessarily a 400-yard game each week) as the Steelers are chasing a top playoff spot. You can argue, though, that Thomas Brown has more to play for to remove the interim label in his title. Therefore, Williams is someone to watch beyond Week 14.
Moving forward, Wilson will likely be ranked similar to Williams. So I slightly lean towards starting Wilson in this AFC North showdown this week and Williams for at least Weeks 17 and 18.
Check out all of our Week 14 fantasy football content:
- Week 14 Fantasy Football Advice Mailbag (2024)
- Fantasy Football Whiplash! | Week 14 News & Notes (2024)
- Week 14 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
- Week 14 Shore Thing Sleepers (2024)
- Week 14 In the Scope Targets (2024)
- PropKings: NFL Week 14 (2024)
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*Photo Credit: Peter Casey – USA TODAY Sports*
