Buckle up; it’s time for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is one of the most challenging tournaments of the year outside of the Majors.
The field is elite, and the course is notoriously tough. Bay Hill is sure to give the players plenty of fits. The question is not if you’ll make a big number; when will you make a big number? Players will need the whole bag this week. The best of the best typically rise to the top, which should starkly contrast the trend of longshot winners this year.
I’m here to help you figure out which stud to cash in on and which duds to avoid with my 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks!
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
A Returning Xander Schauffele Could Strike | 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
Course Layout
The 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational will be located at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla. The course is a Par-72 with 7,466 yards of Bermuda fairways and greens.
A total of 72 golfers will play with a cut to 50 players and anyone within 10 shots of the lead after two rounds. Bay Hill is challenging, one of the toughest tests on Tour year after year. So much so that it doles out the highest amount of penalty strokes on Tour yearly, as there are several approach shots to greens protected by water. About nine holes have water in play in general, and, per usual, strategic bunkering, with over 80 bunkers in action this week! The fairways are narrow and have forced layups taking distance out of the equation somewhat.
The rough is some of the thicker stuff these players will see outside of a Major. Although these greens are massive by Tour standards, they are firm and fast, proving to be a challenge if you aren’t sticking it close.
The weather can also be very taxing here, and the winds look quite treacherous, especially over the weekend. The score at Bay Hill is rarely over single digits under par.
Building Our Betting Model
Building blocks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025:
- Shots Gained Tee to Green
- Shots Gained Approach
- Shots Gained Putting
- Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance / Double Bogey Avoidance
- Par-5 Scoring
- Approach from 200+
- Par-3 Scoring Over 200 yards
Players Our Model Target for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025:
Xander Schauffele (+1800) | ($10,100)
Xander Schauffele finally returns this week from a rib injury that has kept him out since the season opener. Monday night, he also returned to TGL and showed no signs of the nagging rib injury. Schauffele has not always had the best history at Bay Hill.
Despite all the concerns coming in, I’m still betting on him. Schauffele is ranked second in the world, and we are getting six times the odds that we are on Scottie Scheffler.
He possesses a unique skill set; going through the entire bag is second to none. In terms of being well-rounded, he stands above even Scheffler. Outside of the glaringly obvious elite-level play, Schauffele is at the top of the field in both bogey and double-bogey avoidance.
As noted, this course will make you pay for your mistakes, and the 31-year-old recovers better than anyone and avoids big numbers. I love the ball striking from long iron range, and he will need it at Bay Hill. Schauffele is second in this field from 200+ yards, which is not to be ignored.
He is also the top overall golfer in my model this week! Specifically, his overall approach game and ability to scramble to save par have me ignoring the concerns and betting him at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Justin Thomas (+2500) | ($9,400)
Justin Thomas is having the kind of season we expected him to have last year. He has three T10s in four starts. The elite iron game that we expect from Thomas has been on display. He gained eight strokes on approach at The Genesis Invitational and is averaging almost four strokes per start so far this season.
The off-the-tee game has been a little shaky at times, and him missing left could bring trouble into play on several holes at Bay Hill. Nonetheless, he seems to have more control of his game than he has had for over a year. Even with the driver, he is still fifth in this field for strokes gained tee-to-green. Thomas is also first in approach and bogey avoidance. He is also excellent when scrambling around the green. He finished T12 last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and is in far better form coming into the event this year. I love “JT” this week!
Michael Kim (+6500) | ($7,600)
The top player in tee-to-green this week is Michael Kim. The former Cal Golden Bear has been playing some seriously good golf this year, and +6500 is way too long, in my opinion. He has not lost strokes in any category during his last four starts. His finishes show that with second, 13th, 13th and sixth. He has been in contention week after week, and I see that trend continuing at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
This course sets up very nicely for Kim. I noted you’ll need elite play throughout the entire bag, and that’s what he brings. There are no glaring holes. His driver and approach game are solid, and Kim is elite at scrambling around the green game. He is also third in bogey avoidance, meaning he doesn’t give strokes back easily.
He has demonstrated the ability to plot his way around the course and capitalize on second-shot courses. If we have a “longshot” winner here, it may as well be Michael Kim.
Outrights to Consider:
- Rory McIlroy (+750): It’s pretty hard to ignore three T10s in his last five starts at Bay Hill, especially when you know who Rory McIlroy is. This could very easily be his second win of the season.
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2500): Hideki Matsuyama rates out inside the top 15 for literally every stat I looked at over the last 24 rounds. He is elite from the top to the bottom of the bag and has finally learned to putt consistently. He’s live to win here for sure.
- Daniel Berger (+5500): I will keep betting on Daniel Berger every week. He is playing some of the best golf of his career. The course setup is particularly good for him, and it gets even better if the winds pick up.
- Andrew Novak (+15000): Andrew Novak is a rollercoaster, either competing to win or missing the cut. The thing drawing me to him this week is his ability to scramble and get up and down. He plays fast, and he’s a little reckless. However, if he’s in the groove, he’s live to win, especially in windy conditions on a tough course.
Bonus Prop Bets to Consider:
- Xander Schauffele: Top 5 Finish (+300)
- Tommy Fleetwood: Top 10 Finish (+210)
- Michael Kim: Top 5 Finish (+1000) and Top 10 Finish (+400)
DFS Plays for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Scottie Scheffler ($12,000)
- Rory McIlroy ($10,800)
- Xander Schauffele ($10,100)
- Justin Thomas ($9,400)
- Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,900)
- Collin Morikawa ($9,800)
- Tony Finau ($9,200)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Russell Henley ($8,800)
- Mav McNealy ($8,700)
- Daniel Berger ($8,500)
- Sepp Straka ($8,100)
- Michael Kim ($7,600)
- Denny McCarthy ($7,300)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Sungjae Im ($8,900)
- Keegan Bradley ($8,400)
- Viktor Hovland ($8,300)
- Wyndham Clark ($8,000)
- Matt Fitzpatrick ($7,700)
- Cam Young ($7,000)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Lucas Glover ($6,400)
- Andrew Novak ($6,300)
- Joe Highsmith ($6,200)
- Justin Rose ($6,100)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Stephan Jaeger ($6,700)
- Aldrich Potgieter ($6,500)
- Max Homa ($6,300)
- Chris Kirk ($6,100)
- Tom Hoge ($6,100)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Adam Cairns – USA TODAY Sports*
