“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This week’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the FedEx St. Jude Championship odds.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Picks (Outrights)
- Jon Rahm (+900)
- Viktor Hovland (+2000)
- Justin Rose (+7500)
- Vincent Norrman (+18000)
Jon Rahm (+900)
It’s go time for Jon Rahm! Playoff time just screams Rahm. He has had some ups and downs this season but has still managed to keep himself near the top of leaderboards. When you look at the shots-gained data, he has continued to dominate in most categories all year.
The biggest knock on him this season, from my perspective, has been the putting and around-the-green game. Still, those areas have started rounding back into form over the last few tournaments, and I see it continuing this week. Of the top-tier players, Rahm seems to be the best value, not only from a betting perspective but also from a DFS stance. Stat models will love Rahm at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and he does rate out as No. 1 for me.
He has the distance and the accuracy off the tee, and his approach game from the key distances is well inside of the top 10. Fast Bermuda surfaces are actually where Rahm does his best work, rating inside the top 20 for strokes-gained putting on these conditions and inside the top 10 for three-putt avoidance on this surface, as well. Some of the risk with him, albeit minimal to begin with, may be further mitigated this week on Bermuda.
Viktor Hovland (+2000)
Viktor Hovland is a favorite of mine, and it’s good to see him rounding into form in time for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. I say rounding into form, but he has been in form all season, not missing a cut since last year’s Genesis Scottish Open. He’s had an amazing season and has not gotten the credit he deserves for his immaculate and consistent play. The biggest challenges with Hovland are his putting and around-the-green game, but even those have been substantially better this season. He has not lost strokes in those categories over the last five starts.
He hits the ball sneaky long, averaging about 307 yards off the tee with 63% accuracy. His approach game matches up very well with the key approach distance at TPC Southwind. Plus, when he’s striping it, he puts himself in birdie-or-better range more often than not. This is setting up to be a strong week for Hovland.
Justin Rose (+7500)
Over the years of betting and rostering Justin Rose, there are very few people that I find more polarizing. However, his stats over the last 36 rounds are just too good to overlook, and he is a true value at 75/1. His last three starts have resulted in missed cuts, and that may be why we are getting such a good number on him. Rose’s approach game had been absolutely stellar prior to that, gaining no less than 4.8 strokes in his prior four starts. His off-the-tee game, which is normally a bit of his issue, had actually been quite good as well, being pretty much flat to the field. Flat to the field is somehow Rose’s optimal performance. You just need him to find the fairway and let his approach game take over.
I also like him on very fast greens, where he performs even better than typical, gaining upwards of 4.5 strokes per round in those conditions. Rose is very live to miss the cut for a fifth-straight event, but if he catches fire, he is also capable of running away with the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s a dangerous player, and we may see him in the mix on Sunday.
Vincent Norrman (+18000)
We are big fans of Vincent Norrman, and this week is no different. He crushes the golf ball, averaging 315 yards off the tee. His accuracy can be hit-and-miss, but the distance makes up for some of the accuracy challenges. His approach game gets better from shorter distances, which you could say about a lot of golfers. Still, with Norrman, it’s a massive swing, going from about two strokes per tournament all the way to five-plus gained in certain spots. His putting is right in the middle of this field but he rarely loses more than .5 strokes per round in that metric. He is volatile but all that needs to happen for him is a week when all of his natural skills come together.
Norrman is the total package and can perform at the level of the big boys in this field. He has won on Tour in the last 30 days at the Barbasol. That was a prime example of what happens when his game comes together, gaining 14.3 strokes in total and 5.2 strokes putting that week. Norrman is a player who is going to make a lot of noise on tour for years to come and I think we are in for an explosive playoff run from him starting this week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Other Outrights to Consider this Week:
- Rory McIlroy (+900)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+2200)
- Rickie Fowler (+3000)
- Wyndham Clark (+3000)
- Byeong Hun An (+4500)
- Keegan Bradley (+7000)
- Eric Cole (+11000)
Prop Bets to Consider this Week:
- First-Round Leader: Jon Rahm (+1400)
- Top American Player: Wyndham Clark (+1800)
Thanks for reading my best bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole Live! Get your bets in, and let’s win some money!