“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This edition’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the Valspar Championship 2024.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Valspar Championship 2024 Betting Picks
Sam Burns (+1200)
Sam Burns, who won this tournament back-to-back with scores of -17 in 2021 and 2022, is one of my favorite bets at the Valspar Championship. Burns has three T10s in his last six starts and hasn’t missed a cut in 2024. His issue seems to be very similar to Rory McIlroy’s in that he hasn’t been able to play four solid rounds in a given week.
I think this could be the week we see him put it all together. He has been gaining in every metric week on the week if you remove the one not-so-great round from each tournament. This is a course that he far surpasses his career averages on. His approach game at Innisbrook is almost four strokes better than his average. His up-and-down game is almost 2.5 strokes better here. Those are areas that Burns rarely shines in, but this place just seems to fit his eye. I love Burns to get his third win at the Copperhead Course this week!
Min Woo Lee (+3000)
This is a little shorter odds than I’d like to see Min Woo Lee at, but his win equity is too high to ignore. He continues to get better and better and is proving he can grind. The Valspar Championship will be a grind. We did see a dip in his approach game last week at The Players, but I see that bouncing back at Copperhead.
Lee was 2.7 strokes gained on approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 6.1 at the Cognizant Classic. The off-the-tee game proved to be a weapon last week, gaining 3.3 strokes for the tournament. Scrambling has stayed consistent, not gaining much, but also not losing anything. If Lee keeps the off-the-tee game going and his approach comes back to even 50%, he should be well in contention come Sunday.
Doug Ghim (+4000)
Doug Ghim is on everyone’s radar this week. He was a great fit for The Players Championship and didn’t disappoint. I like him again at the Valspar Championship. He sets up well and is in amazing form! The University of Texas alumnus rated out third overall in my statistical model. It’s not one thing in particular that he’s doing well; he’s just playing good golf! Much like Lee, the odds are a little shorter than I would normally buy in on, but he is competing weekly. The big dogs aren’t rising to the top of these lesser fields like they used to. Ghim can absolutely win at Copperhead!
Hayden Springer (+30000)
I haven’t been writing up longshot players much this year, but this one popped in my model and is fresh off a T3 in Puerto Rico. It’s apparently longshot season. So why not? Hayden Springer is a name you may not know, but in four starts this season, he has made three of the four cuts and has been hanging around the top 30 until his third-place finish. He gained almost 10.5 strokes to the field at the Puerto Rico Open.
His approach game has been elite, averaging 1.5 strokes to the field per round. Springer’s off-the-tee game has also been stellar, averaging almost two strokes gained per round to the field. In his four starts this season, he rates out No.1 in this field for strokes gained putting. His scrambling hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t had to be, given that he is hitting greens in regulation at a 71% clip.
He is a relatively unknown player, and you won’t hear his name much coming into this week, but he is very long, given his current form. It’s worth throwing a couple of shekels at!
If you don’t trust him outright, you can consider him for any of the following placement props: T5 (+5000), T10 (+2000), T20 (+800), or T40 (+250).
Other Outright Bets to Consider for the Valspar Championship 2024:
- Justin Thomas (+1400)
- Brian Harman (+2000)
- Nick Taylor (+3500)
- Aaron Rai (+4500)
- Thorbjorn Olesen (+7000)
Check out all of our content for the Valspar Championship 2024:
- Between Bets: Valspar Championship 2024 Outrights
- PropKings: Valspar Championship 2024
- PGA DFS: Valspar Championship 2024
Thanks for reading my best bets for the Valspar Championship 2024, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole! Good luck this week!
*Photo Credit: Vincent Carchietta – USA TODAY Sports*
