“PropKings” is an article series revealing our staff’s best prop bets across the NFL, College Football, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This write-up features my favorite NFL Week 15 player props.
Week 15 is here, and as the NFL Playoffs draw ever closer, it seems like Vegas is tightening its belts. That doesn’t mean there aren’t sound gambling opportunities there; it just takes a comb with finer teeth to find them. And I found several tasty morsels! Last week, we went 1-3 after a 4-0 outing the prior week. I only have room for three (and a bonus!) here, but make sure you check me out on X/Twitter/Bluesky on Saturday night for a few extras!
Enough talk. Let’s run it back on Sunday and make some money.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets of the Week (2024)
Justin Herbert (QB, Los Angeles Chargers) | 2+ Passing Touchdowns (+110)
As of publication, no prop is available for a single Justin Herbert passing touchdown since he is currently listed as questionable. However, after a little digging, I found this two-plus dandy with plus-money odds, which will do just as well. Herbert is expected to play, but if something were to happen before the game, a voided bet won’t hurt.
Herbert hasn’t tossed two scores since Week 11 against the Bengals, but he’s attempted over 30 passes in four of his last seven and three of the last four. The Chargers have been down J.K. Dobbins (MCL sprain) since Week 12, and Gus Edwards and the rest of the running back corps aren’t cutting it. That’s particularly notable this time of year, with Los Angeles battling for a playoff spot.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are notoriously susceptible to the pass in 2024. They’ve coughed up 21 passing touchdowns, including two in six different games (Kirk Cousins did it twice). The total for this game is 45.5 and I expect the Chargers and Buccaneers to blow the doors off that number. Even if Ladd McConkey were to miss the game, expect a big result from Quentin Johnston on the outside.
RELATED: Between Bets: 2024 College Football Playoffs First-Round ATS & Total Picks
Adam Thielen (WR, Carolina Panthers) | Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The fantasy football world is abuzz with talk of Adam Thielen as a potential league-winner this season, and why not? Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is finally playing like the promising young talent that Carolina drafted. Additionally, the emergence of RB Chuba Hubbard in the run game has opened up significant passing lanes.
Thielen missed seven games after Week 3. When he returned, he immediately stepped back into his role in the slot and grabbed three passes for 57 yards. He followed that up with a total of 17 catches and 201 yards during the last two weeks, rapidly returning to his status as Young’s favorite target.
The Cowboys aren’t good in either defensive phase, but most notably just surrendered 177 yards to Ja’Marr Chase when he lined up in the slot for a majority of the game. Terry McLaurin got them for 102 yards and Malik Nabers (69), among others… all from the same spot Thielen lines up the majority of the time. Given his upward trajectory in receptions and yards over the last three weeks and Dallas’ history against the position, betting on the 34-year-old here is an absolute no-brainer.
Tony Pollard (RB, Tennessee Titans) | Over 84.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
Tony Pollard‘s ankle injury and consequently being tagged as “questionable” for Sunday does not concern me. He missed Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practices before being reported as a limited participant on Friday.
The Cincinnati Bengals give up more yards on the ground alone (87.8) than this combined total. Pollard has covered this line in eight of 13 games on the season, mainly by a comfortable margin or in rushing alone. Titans quarterback Will Levis has played well of late, but Tennessee is best suited to not compete in a one-dimensional game. They are averaging a 57%-pass-to-43%-run offensive play split, placing them squarely at No. 15 in the league as far as balance. I say that to demonstrate that the game script does not necessarily mean they will abandon Pollard and the run game.
Cincinnati has allowed a running back to conquer this prop an astonishing 10 times in 13 contests. Even in the rare cases that the Bengals can stuff the box versus opposing backs, their soft zone and affinity for playing off the line leaves them weak against designed passes to the running back.
Bonus Bet: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR, Tennessee Titans) | Anytime Touchdown (+240) – Nine touchdowns in last eight games
Best of luck with all of your bets this weekend. Brick by brick, we build!
Check out all of our Week 15 fantasy football content:
- Fantasy Football Whiplash! | Week 15 News & Notes (2024)
- Week 15 Fantasy Football Advice Mailbag (2024)
- Week 15 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
- Week 15 Shore Thing Sleepers (2024)
- Week 15 In the Scope Targets (2024)
- PropKings: NFL Week 15 (2024)
Thanks for checking out my favorite prop bets for the NFL in Week 15! Track me down on Twitter/X @BuyAndSellYou for more fantasy football and NFL betting content.
*Photo Credit: Lon Horwedel – USA TODAY Sports*
