We are off to Houston this week for the longest tournament name in golf, the 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open. Scoring tends to stay modest on this links-style course. There is a little more emphasis on distance and scrambling than in previous weeks. Elite ball striking plays here, but there is less plotting, and you need to be able to play every club in the bag.
The field is less impressive, and we will likely see some names pop up that we haven’t seen have much success this year or in general. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler have very short odds because they are a class above the rest of the field. Take your stand up-top and then spread the bankroll out amongst some of the longshots. Most of my money is going to McIlroy this week, so I have some longer shots featured to give you options outside of the obvious bets at the top.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Our Model Loves Rory McIlroy & These Longshots | 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks
Course Layout
The Texas Children’s Houston Open is played on the Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston. The course’s par is 70, with 7,475 yards and Bermuda fairways. The greens are also Bermuda with overseeded Poa.
Memorial Park Golf Course is a links-style course. The course itself plays longer than the yardage would indicate. The greens are massive and incredibly fast and firm. Bunkering is minimal; instead, the designers opted for steep and aggressive runoffs that will test the players’ creativity getting up and down when missing the green. There are very few bunkers in play here, and water only comes into play on four holes.
The rough can be aggressive, and ditches run throughout the course. There are some very strong correlations here to elite ball striking and distance. No matter your long ball ability, you need to have the ability to scramble and get up and down here.
Building Our Betting Model
- Shots Gained Ball Striking
- Driving Distance
- Putting on Bermuda (Fast)
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained Around the Greens
- Par-4 500+
- Shots Gained Approach
Players Our Model Target for the Texas Children’s Houston Open 2025:
Joe Highsmith (+6000) | ($7,800)
Joe Highsmith has been having a great season with a win at the Cognizant Classic and three other T20 finishes. This is a course that should be set up very well for him. He is rating out seventh for me overall this week. The ball striking is really tipping the scales in his favor, rating out at 11th. His accuracy on approach really drives this number as he is in the top 14 for greens in regulation hit.
A metric I added back into the mix this week is opportunities gained. I wanted to see golfers who are routinely giving themselves a look at birdies by knocking it close. Highsmith comes in at the fourth spot. On a course that has notoriously difficult greens to hit, I like an elite ball striker who sticks it close more often than not.
Kurt Kitayama (+6500) | ($7,600)
Our boy Kurt Kitayama is not good at putting. I can’t even sugarcoat that. He’s flat-out terrible at it. The rest of his game is too good to ignore, though. He is one of the best iron players in this field. I love Kitayama at a grinder type of tournament, and this course does require some grinding. He tends to be very good at scrambling and recovery. Kitayama isn’t going to inspire confidence with his short game, but he is an excellent ball-striker.
He is very good at scoring on long par-4s and par-5s, rating out sixth. Memorial Park has some of the longer par-4s these players see all year, so we need golfers that play long irons well. Kitayama is also sneaky long off the tee. He goes overlooked on that stat, but at 20th in this field for distance, he is definitely not a slouch.
When looking for potential values in this lesser field, you can do a whole lot worse than Kitayama, who has won on Tour and is capable of getting hot and putting it all together any time.
Charley Hoffman (+15000) | ($6,900)
I usually only bet Charley Hoffman at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. However, it turns out that he rates out really well for Memorial Park, too. Hoffman does not lose strokes on approach. You have to go back quite a while to find a tournament that he did so. He is another player like Highsmith who has a great iron game and sticks the ball close. His short game is pretty average compared to the rest of this field.
Typically, that part of his game would preclude him from consideration, but in this field, it’s really not that bad. Betting on Hoffman is betting that his iron game is hot and consistent for all four days. It’s entirely possible and at triple-digit odds – Why not?
Outrights to Consider:
- Rory McIlroy (+700): The season of McIlroy is likely to continue here. The immaculate ball-striking and newfound confidence in short irons and wedges make him a near must-bet every time he tees it up. I’m very heavy on him again this week.
- J.J. Spaun (+3000): Speaking of elite ball-striking, J.J. Spaun continues to impress week in and week out with his game. He’s absolutely elite with irons, and though he’s shorter off the tee, he is still in the top three for long par-4 and par-5 scoring.
- Michael Kim (+3000): A couple of hiccups for Michael Kim have slowed down the heater he was on, but he is still playing absurdly good golf. Kim still rates out in the top five overall for me, so I will continue going back to the well.
- Taylor Pendrith (+4000): Taylor Pendrith is about as elite as it gets when ball striking comes into play. He has a tendency to struggle with the flat stick, but he did gain 6.2 strokes putting last time out. Hope for the putter to keep rolling, and we can see him in real competition to win here.
- Gary Woodland (+12000): Gary Woodland keeps creeping up in our modeling. With his iron game and distance, it makes a ton of sense why. Woodland may not win at 120-1 odds, but I have done way dumber things with five dollars, and I want to be there when we see his next win.
Bonus Prop Bets to Consider:
- Michael Kim: Top 5 Finish (+550), Top 10 Finish (+280)
- Joe Highsmith: Top 20 Finish (+240)
- Kurt Kitayama: Top 20 Finish (+260)
- Charley Hoffman: Top 20 Finish (+450)
DFS Plays for the Texas Children’s Houston Open 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Rory McIlroy ($11,700)
- JJ Spaun ($9,900)
- Tony Finau ($9,200)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Scottie Scheffler ($12,700)
- Min Woo Lee ($9,600)
- Wyndham Clark ($9,100)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Stephan Jaeger ($8,800)
- Michael Kim ($8,700)
- Taylor Pendrith ($8,500)
- Keith Mitchell ($8,000)
- Joe Highsmith ($7,800)
- Kurt Kitayama ($7,600)
- Beau Hossler ($7,200)
- Gary Woodland ($7,100)
- Karl Vilips ($7,000)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Sahith Theegala ($8,000)
- Jake Knapp ($7,700)
- Davis Riley ($7,600)
- Rickie Fowler ($7,400)
- Austin Eckroat ($7,200)
- Nick Dunlap ($7,100)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Mac Meissner ($6,900)
- Charley Hoffman ($6,900)
- Chan Kim ($6,800)
- Michael Thorbjornsen ($6,800)
- Antoine Rozner ($6,700)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Justin Lower ($6,900)
- Erik Van Rooyen ($6,800)
- Adam Hadwin ($6,800)
- Emiliano Grillo ($6,700)
- C.T. Pan ($6,600)
- K.H. Lee ($6,300)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union – USA Today Sports*
