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2024 PGA Championship PGA Odds & Picks | Best Bets (Outrights) | Ludvig Aberg

Between Bets: PGA Championship 2024 Outrights

by Conor Coughlin

“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This edition’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the PGA Championship 2024.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sports Betting CTA

PGA Championship 2024 Betting Picks

Ludvig Aberg (+2200)

Ludvig Aberg was my favorite to win last week at the Wells Fargo Championship until he had to withdraw with a knee injury. All signs point to that being a preventive measure to rest it. That said, Valhalla Golf Club is a fairly decent comp to Quail Hollow. I loved him there, so of course I love him here, where the fairways and the approaches are a little more forgiving.

Aberg has been playing some of the most consistent elite-level golf this year, and much like Scottie Scheffler, he is proving to be course-proof. Valhalla Golf Club will demand distance and accuracy, and he is gaining an average of three strokes off the tee per tournament and 313 yards of distance with a fairways hit percentage of 64.9%. His approach game continues to improve weekly, and he is third in this field for opportunities gained over the last 50 rounds. Speaking of scoring opportunities, Aberg is No. 2 in this field for strokes gained on par 4s over 450 yards, which six of the par 4s here are. 

The tiebreaker for me the last two weeks comes down to scrambling stats, and Aberg is in the top 13 for getting up and down for par or better. Everything about Aberg says he sets up perfectly for the PGA Championship!

Justin Thomas (+5000)

Hometown Hero? Justin Thomas is a Louisville, Ky., native and will have a big-time home-field advantage this week. I was very high on “JT” coming into the year, and he has more or less been a letdown.

This feels like the time to jump back on. Thomas is an elite player and has won the PGA Championship twice over his career. Thomas has the complete package to compete and win at Valhalla. He can bomb the ball, averaging 309 yards off the tee. His approach game is still on an elite level and he rates out inside the top-20 overall. He throws darts, ranking 14th in this field for opportunities gained. The stats are a bit misleading, as he is even better than those numbers indicate.

He has had a lot of ups and downs this season off the tee, but in his last two starts, he is averaging 1.6 strokes gained off the tee and an average of 4.1 from tee to green combined. Thomas is coming in rounding into form and is flying completely under the radar. Odds of 50/1 are criminally long for him. Thomas will be in the running come Sunday!

Tyrrell Hatton (+5000)

Tyrell Hatton is one of the LIV Golf players not being talked about this week. Hatton has been playing great golf with four T10s in eight starts on the LIV Tour and a ninth-place finish at The Masters this year. Before making the jump to LIV, Hatton had made 16 straight cuts on the PGA Tour with five T10s over that stretch.

He rates ninth in my model this week. The Englishman is a scrappy player with a very strong scrambling game, rating ninth. He complements that with being the seventh-best putter in the field. His approach stats are all in the top 20, and he is 17th for overall tee-to-green.

Nothing about Hatton will jump off the page, but that is actually selling me on him more and more. He is exactly what I look for at Majors – a complete and well-rounded competitor. Don’t sleep on Hatton here. He has a ton of fire in him and can compete with the best of the field.

Tim Widing (+80000)

Who? Tim Widing is a Swede who has been making a ton of noise over on the Korn Ferry Tour. He has back-to-back wins on the Korn Ferry Tour (KFT) coming into the PGA Championship. He also has three T10s in total and has made seven of nine cuts this season.

Widing is an elite driver; he averages 309 yards off the tee and hits fairways at 77.8%. He’s No. 2 in greens in regulation rate on the KFT, as well. This man is accurate. He leads the KFT in sand save percentage, and with 62 bunkers in play at Valhalla, that may come in handy.

A couple more stats that might matter:  He’s No. 1 in Par-4 scoring and No. 9 in Par-5 scoring. All of that adds up to being No. 2 in average scoring per tournament on the KFT. Widing is for real, and he’s a near-perfect golfer type for Valhalla Golf Club. This is absolutely worthy of a low-risk longshot wager! You might be thanking me later!

Other Outright Bets That are on My Card for the PGA Championship 2024:

  • Rory McIlroy (+750)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+2800)
  • Joaquin Niemann (+3500)
  • Byeong Hun An (+5500)
  • Talor Gooch (+9000)
  • Ryan Van Velzen (+250000) – I’ve done waaaaayyyy dumber stuff with $5!

Check out all of our content for the PGA Championship 2024:

Thanks for reading my best bets for the PGA Championship 2024, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole! Good luck this week!

*Photo Credit: Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports*

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