The final event of the 2024 PGA season has arrived, and we are headed to Sea Island Resort at St. Simon’s Island, Ga. The tournament will be played at the Sea Island Golf Club on the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course on Thursday and Friday, then transition to the Seaside Course post-cut.
The Plantation Course is a par-72 playing at 7,060 yards and is by far the easier of the two courses. The players will only play one round here but they do need to perform at a high level and make as many birdies as possible to keep pace. The Plantation is very straightforward, and as long as the weather is good, there is no reason that these golfers won’t make hay here.
The Seaside Course is a par-70, playing at 7,005 yards. This course is the more difficult of the two, but that’s not saying much, as it is still exceedingly easy as a whole. Birdie-making and bogey avoidance are critical here. As noted with the Plantation course, the main defense is the weather. The coastal winds have the ability to really play havoc. As of publication, the wind looks to be at its worst Thursday and Friday, with sustained wind around 15-18 mph, gusting to around 20 mph for brief periods. The weekend looks to be fairly calm, averaging six mph. I would expect that to change, so keep an eye on the weather later in the week.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Who Wins the RSM Classic 2024? | PGA Tour Picks & Predictions
Building Our Betting Model
- Shots Gained Approach (Focused on short iron and wedge ranges)
- Shots Gained Par-4 and Par-5 (Skewing toward easier par-5 setups)
- Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda greens)
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Birdie-or-Better Rate
- Fairway-in-Regulation Rates
- Green-in-Regulation Rates
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
- Opportunities Gained
- As a tiebreaker, I’ll pepper in shots gained total in high wind when modeling
This course will require excellent approach play, so I will be looking for golfers who are handy with the irons and stick it close. The event tends to skew towards a putting contest as these two courses are very straightforward and gettable.
I try my best not to overthink this tournament. There are some very clear plays that outclass the rest of the field. I’ll still give you some longer-shot golfers who have the form or skillset to rise up here, but especially on the PGA DFS side; this is not a week I would try to get too cute with lineup construction.
Players Our Model Loves for the RSM Classic 2024
Luke Clanton (+3500 Outright) | $8,600
Luke Clanton is by far and away my favorite young gun for 2024-2025. He has the total package and the confidence to go with it. In seven starts in 2024, he has three T10s, which include a fifth-place finish and a runner-up. Clanton is a standout from Florida State, where he has won four events and achieved numerous accolades at the collegiate level. He was named 2024 Amateur Golfer of the Year after becoming the first amateur to achieve back-to-back T10 finishes at Tour events. The last time this was achieved was in the 1950’s.
Skill-wise, he sets up almost perfectly for an event like this. He gains an obscene amount of strokes on approach, averaging four strokes gained over each of his last 24 rounds. He rates out No.1 in my model for opportunities gained and, in no surprise, No. 1 in birdie-or-better rate as well. He can also bomb the ball, averaging 315 yards per drive and hitting 70% of fairways. You don’t need the distance here, but it will come in handy on the par-5s and may give him shorter looks on approach, leading to more eagle opportunities. You need to score at the RSM Classic, and Clanton does better than anyone else in this field.
Lucas Glover (+3500 Outright) | $8,200
I noted that this could turn into a bit of a putting contest. That said, I’m still looking at Lucas Glover despite his less-than-stellar putter. My reasoning is his elite iron play. He rates out No.1 in this field in overall approach and is top-three in all the key proximity ranges. Glover has, at times, shown the ability to get hot on the birdie train, and he achieves this by sticking it close. He comes in just behind Clanton in the opportunities gained metric.
He has had a great fall season, with back-to-back third-place finishes in October and a 24th-place finish following those. Not that a 24th is stellar play, but it does show that he is keeping form and competing. The hope this week is that he continues the pinpoint accuracy on approach and rolls in birdies in bunches. Glover can do it, and he has proven that time and again. I won’t sleep on the +3500 ticket.
Other RSM Classic 2024 Outrights to Consider
- Ludvig Aberg (+800): Ludvig Aberg is live to win at any moment, every time he tees it up. The knee injury is a bit of a question mark, but he is still one of the best players on the planet right now.
- Denny McCarthy (+2500): If it truly turns into a putting contest, Denny McCarthy can get hot with the flat stick.
- Eric Cole (+3500): Eric Cole showed out here last year with a third-place finish, gaining 11 strokes to the field, doing it mostly with the putter.
- Sam Stevens (+5000): Sam Stevens doesn’t always make it easy on himself, but he finds ways to make birdies. He is No. 2 in this field for birdie-or-better rate over the last 24 rounds.
- Hayden Springer (+12000): This is a bit of gut play. Hayden Springer is a streaky player, but he tends to find heat on the greens when he gets hot. He’s another golfer who could show up big in a wedge and putter contest.
- Jake Knapp (+15000): This is mostly a FOMO bet for me. I love Jake Knapp, and he has such a silky-smooth swing. The putter will never be a strong spot, but when Knapp has broken into the top five of tournaments, it’s been with blistering, hot iron play. I also like him with the short ones that he can finesse and stick close.
Bonus PGA Tour Prop Bets to Consider
- Davis Thompson: Top 10 Finish (+225)
- Eric Cole: Top 10 Finish (+350)
- Luke Clanton: Top 5 Finish (+600), Top 10 Finish (+330), Top American (+2800)
PGA DFS Advice RSM Classic 2024:
DFS is always a bit tricky in these lesser-field events. You want to play the bigger names at the top but can’t fit them all in. What separates lineups may boil down to rostership. I have a few names that I am taking a strong stand on this week and then truly gambling on players who have the ability to get hot. Recent form and overall long-term skillsets should also be taken into account.
Ultimately this tournament has a lot of players who are more or less the same skill level. Find your top-tier plays and then spread the rest of your shares out over a broader player pool this week. If you’re only playing one lineup, I like leaning on the young talent. Aberg and Clanton fit very nicely into lineups with plenty of room to build and not go dumpster diving for longshots.
High-Tier Plays (Over $9,000)
- Ludvig Aberg ($11,200)
- Davis Thompson ($10,400)
- Seamus Power ($9,200)
High-Tier Fades (Over $9,000)
- Brian Harman ($9,800)
- Si Woo Kim ($9,600)
- Matt Wallace ($9,000)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,400 to $7,000)
- Luke Clanton ($8,600)
- Lucas Glover ($8,200)
- Eric Cole ($8,700)
- Keith Mitchell ($7,900)
- Sam Stevens ($7,700)
- Andrew Novak ($8,100)
Mid-Tier Fades: ($8,000 to $7,000)
- Maverick McNealy ($9,100)
- Chris Kirk ($8,300)
- Doug Ghim ($8,000)
- Justin Lower ($7,700)
- Matt Kuchar ($7,600)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $7,000)
- Henrik Norlander ($7,200)
- Lanto Griffin ($6,900)
- Davis Riley ($6,600)
- Hayden Springer ($6,000)
- Austin Smotherman ($6,700)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $7,000)
- Luke List ($7,000)
- Joel Dahmen ($6,800)
- Taylor Montgomery ($6,400)
- Peter Malnati ($6,500)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the RSM Classic 2024!
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Erik Williams – USA TODAY Sports*
