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Sami Valimaki | Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024 | PGA Best Bets, Odds + Predictions

Between Bets: Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024 Outrights

by Conor Coughlin

“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This week’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024 Betting Picks

Taylor Pendrith (+2500)

Taylor Pendrith is our favorite Canadian this week. He has been a bit of a volatile player over the last six months. It seems like he misses the cut or finishes in the top 10, and there’s not a whole lot in between. He has four T10s in his last seven starts and a T15. Pendrith also has two missed cuts, spaced right in between T10s. In his last start at the Farmers Insurance Open, he finished T9 and gained 1.5 strokes off the tee and almost four strokes when looking at his overall tee-to-green performance.

Penrith makes a lot of birdies and doesn’t tend to give strokes back, and at Vidanta Vallarta, you need to go low. He is in the top five for outright win equity in my modeling this week, and he is picking up steam everywhere you look. I’d grab the 25-1 number sooner than later!

Erik van Rooyen (+3500)

Erik Van Rooyen, why do you do this to me? I never get him right, but he is just rating out as an almost perfect fit for this place, given his overall form. He has one start here in which he finished T33. It’s not a glowing endorsement, but he wasn’t playing as well at this time last season. Over the last 24 rounds, “E.V.R.” rates out second in shots gained on approach and eighth off the tee in this field. Not that putting is a major stat that I considered this week, but Paspalum does happen to be his best surface.

He rates out No.1 in my model this week, and I am going back to Van Rooyen despite him burning me at the WM Phoenix Open. Vidanta Vallarta should line up better than anywhere else on Tour for him!

Doug Ghim (+5000)

Doug Ghim doesn’t fall into the bomber category, but he is gaining a ton of strokes off the tee because he’s accurate. His accuracy also carries over on approach, where he rates out No.10 in this field. Ghim’s sweet spot for proximity is 175-200 yards, which is the distance we should see the majority of his second shots coming from. His approach has gained him almost three strokes at each of the last two events, and he has finished 13th and 12th in much stronger fields. I love Ghim’s tee-to-green game.

He rated out fourth for best value to odds in my model. I love this number and this spot. The Mexico Open at Vidanta may be crowning Doug Ghim champion come Sunday!

Sami Valimaki (+9000)

Sami Valimaki? Who?  The Finn, who enjoys success on the DP World Tour, is showing some promise on the PGA Tour in 2024. He has been on fire with his irons. Valimaki rates out in the top 10 for the main proximity buckets this week. He has been accurate, yet average in distance off of the tee. He gained almost six strokes on approach at the WM Phoenix Open while being flat off of the tee. That is abnormal for Valimaki who tends to gain an average of 1.9 strokes off the tee. In his last 22 starts on the DP World Tour, he has only missed the cut twice. In that time, he has a second, fourth and sixth-place finish and a win at the Qatar Masters.

Valimaki is most definitely someone who can catch a hot hand and win this week. He is a class above this field and is flying well under the radar. Longshots happen this year! Why not Valimaki at the Mexico Open at Vidanta?! 

Other Outright Bets to Consider for the Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024

Check out all of our content for the Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024:

Thanks for reading my best bets for the Mexico Open 2024, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole! Good luck this week!

*Photo Credit: Patrick Breen/The Republic – USA TODAY Sports*

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