Home Articles Between Bets: Valero Texas Open 2024 Outrights
Valero Texas Open 2024 PGA Odds, Picks & Predictions | Hideki Matsuyama

Between Bets: Valero Texas Open 2024 Outrights

by Conor Coughlin

“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This edition’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the Valero Texas Open 2024.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sports Betting CTA

Valero Texas Open Betting Picks

Ludvig Aberg (+1200)

Ludvig Aberg is one of my favorite bets this week. He was firing on all cylinders the last we saw him at The Players Championship, gaining 12.3 strokes tee to green that week. I have been a critic of Aberg, mainly with his accuracy. Those days may be behind us. He seems to have found consistency, and it doesn’t seem to matter what club is in his hands. He is powerful off the tee, averaging 313 yards. Though he can still get a little wild occasionally, I don’t think it will hinder him at the Valero Texas Open. He is starting to have a reputation for being course-proof, and TPC San Antonio will not be an exception to the rule.

One of the field’s main obstacles this week will be the wind, and Aberg plays better the windier it gets. He rates out No.5 in my model this week, and at 12-1, I think he represents value among the favorites here.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)

Hideki Matsuyama may be the best value on the board at the Valero Texas Open. He rates out incredibly well here and only gets better when weighing wind stats. He leads this field in strokes gained tee-to-green, and it’s not even particularly close. He gained 14.2 strokes tee-to-green with 6.5 on approach in his last start at The Players. He has been a stripe show as of late! He isn’t the longest of hitters, but as long as you’re accurate at TPC San Antonio, you can still keep up. 

My biggest hang-up with Hideki is that he is always live to withdraw. With The Masters coming up next week, it wouldn’t surprise me if he does just that if he starts off slow. That said, I am still investing heavily in him this week because if he plays through, he will likely be in contention come Sunday. 

Akshay Bhatia (+5500)

It’s rare to see a player who is so much better when you turn the fan on high, but that is exactly what Akshay Bhatia is. He is already somewhat of a wizard with his irons, and that gets amplified the windier it gets. He did not have a single round over 69 last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He gained almost eight strokes on approach despite the brutal conditions. He is a genius when it comes to shot-shaping.

His biggest weakness is off the tee, where he tends to gain around one stroke per tournament. That said, he can bomb it, averaging over 300 yards off the tee. In these conditions, this course seems almost perfect for Bhatia to win. Odds of 55-1 seem way too long for a golfer who sets up so well!

Doug Ghim (+9000)

Doug Ghim has let me, and possibly the rest of the betting public, down the last two starts. He has been knocking at the door since the beginning of the year and just hasn’t quite gotten it done. Ghim has finished inside the top 16 in five out of his last seven starts, with his best finish being eighth at The Mexico Open at Vidanta. He is rating out sixth overall in my strokes-gained model, ranking ninth in tee-to-green and ninth in approach.

He is one of the shorter hitters in the field but he is one of the more accurate, rating out sixth overall. Driving distance is his only red stat over the last 24 rounds, and I’m willing to overlook it, given how accurate he has been in all aspects of his game. He can struggle in the wind a bit, so the 90-1 risk is somewhat warranted. Nonetheless, the odds are still too enticing to pass up. Ghim has been playing great this season, and this feels too long for a player of his caliber. Given the top-20 equity he has proven this year, it might not hurt to grab that bet at +330. He has done it five out of the last seven times he has teed it up!

Other Outright Bets to Consider for the Valero Texas Open 2024:

Check out all of our content for the Valero Texas Open 2024:

Thanks for reading my best bets for the Valero Texas Open 2024, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole! Good luck this week!

*Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports*

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