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Scottie Scheffler | WM Phoenix Open 2024: PGA Best Bets, Odds + Predictions

Between Bets: WM Phoenix Open 2024 Outrights

by Conor Coughlin

“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This edition’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the WM Phoenix Open 2024.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sports Betting CTA

WM Phoenix Open 2024 Betting Picks

Scottie Scheffler (+450)

One week removed from my quote, “Why is Scottie Scheffler so bad?” and here I am suggesting you bet him at incredibly short odds. It’s hard to deny his course history here at TPC Scottsdale. He is the back-to-back tournament champion to be exact.

He is still shaky with the putter, but for the first time in a very long time, he actually gained strokes putting last week. Gaining .8 strokes putting is a lot like other people gaining five or six strokes. That’s how bad it’s been over the last seven months. Uncharacteristically, Scheffler lost strokes off the tee last week. Had he gained off the tee, he very well could have been even better than his sixth-place finish, especially after playing only three rounds last week due to the extreme weather at Pebble Beach.

He is still rating out far and away No. 1 in my model. At a course he has dominated for the last two years, I am a green light on Scheffler this week at the WM Phoenix Open! 

Justin Thomas (+1000)

I would love to have seen what would have happened in a fourth round at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week because Justin Thomas was right there after round three. It could have been an entirely different tournament if Wyndham Clark hadn’t decided to come out of his coma and shoot a course record on Saturday. “JT” continued to do all the things we had been watching and then some. What failed him at Pebble Beach was his putter, and it was a massive failure at 2.3 strokes lost.

I don’t see that trend continuing this week in Scottsdale. The WM Phoenix Open has been very good to Thomas in his last five starts, finishing fourth, T8, T13, T3 and third. The area of his game that tends to give him some trouble is off the tee, and even that hasn’t failed him in his last six starts on Tour. We know Thomas is an elite iron player who loves sticking the ball close. In an environment that he loves with rowdy fans, it would not surprise me to see him de-throne Scheffler this week. I truly believe we will have an epic showdown between these two come Sunday!

Erik van Rooyen (+9000)

We like to give Erik van Rooyen grief on “The 19th Hole” each week, but it’s hard to look at the stats he’s been putting up the last six months and not think he sets up really well here. He has been lingering around the top 20 all wrap-around season and had a win at the World Wide Technology Championship back in November. His approach game has been excellent, rating out No.12 in my model. His off-the-tee game has been even better, rating out at No.4 over the last 24 rounds. “E.V.R.” also likes to pour in some birdies. He has the eighth-best birdie-or-better rate in this field and is in the top 1- for par-4 and par-5 scoring. Maybe it’s time for us to start trusting Van Rooyen again!

Daniel Berger (+11000)

Daniel Berger didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his first two starts back on Tour. A missed cut and a 39th-place finish aren’t exactly prime Berger form. I’m at least glad he started slow so that we could have such a great number at the WM Phoenix Open. The odds of +11000 seem like an extreme value for a player that is this elite. He hasn’t demonstrated it yet, but he will, and I’m not going to miss triple-digit odds on him.

Berger has a mixed past at TPC Scottsdale. He has a handful of missed cuts and a T9. I know I’m not selling him well, but Berger still rates out in the top 15 in my modeling, which is driven by his elite approach game. He is in the top five for the key proximities that I measured, and he is still rating inside of the top 25 in every other category I weighed this week, even after two lackluster starts. That just goes to show that, historically, the player is in there. This is far from a sure thing, but as far as a long shot goes, Berger is in a class above some of these other players. This has been a season of longshot odds coming through, and this could be another week of triple-digit odds paying off. 

Other Outright Bets to Consider for the WM Phoenix Open 2024

Check out all of our content for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open:


Thanks for reading my best bets for the WM Phoenix Open 2024, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST onThe 19th Hole! Good luck this week!

*Photo Credit: Kiyoshi Mio – USA TODAY Sports*

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2 comments

PGA DFS Picks & Course Preview: WM Phoenix Open 2024 February 6, 2024 - 4:16 am

[…] Between Bets: WM Phoenix Open 2024 Outrights […]

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PGA Prop Bet of the Week: WM Phoenix Open 2024 February 6, 2024 - 4:39 pm

[…] Between Bets: WM Phoenix Open 2024 Outrights […]

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