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2024 US Open Odds, Picks & Predictions | PGA Best Bets | Sam Burns

Between Bets: US Open 2024 Outrights

by Conor Coughlin

“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This edition’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the US Open.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

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US Open 2024 Betting Picks

Ludvig Aberg (+2000)

Ludvig Aberg is truly proving to be course-proof. He can play anywhere, which tells me there isn’t a glaring weakness in his game. The US Open is going to test every aspect of the game. Aberg has been having a great season. He had some struggles with a minor knee injury. Still, last week at the Memorial Tournament, that didn’t seem to affect him, finishing fifth and gaining in every single metric, including around-the-green, where he had some struggles earlier this season. The form looks great, and he rates out fifth in my model overall this week.

The biggest selling point for me is his recovery stats; he’s fourth in bogey avoidance, sixth in sand save percentage and fouth in overall scrambling. The best part of him getting himself out of trouble at that rate is that he typically doesn’t get himself into trouble to begin with. At a course that will require accuracy, he rates out fourth in greens in regulation and is gaining 3.1 strokes on approach over his last five starts. He’s got the game! Time to go get his first of many Majors!

Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)

Hideki Matsuyama is really good at golf. He’s even better at Majors. Over the last 24 rounds, he is second in this field to only Scottie Scheffler in strokes gained tee-to-green. His approach game has been seriously on fire all year, rating out eighth overall. The surprising thing for me about Matsuyama is just how good he is at scrambling and getting up and down. He isn’t missing a lot of fairways and greens, but when he does, he rates out second in scrambling, second in sand save percentage and first in strokes gained around the green. He doesn’t save himself with his putter but even that hasn’t cost him any strokes.

For a player who has gained an average of 7.7 strokes from tee to green over his last five starts, 35/1 seems like a misprice. I’d grab it before it gets shorter. Matsuyama is fully capable of winning the US Open.

Sam Burns (+6500)

I’m back on Sam Burns this week. It feels like a win is coming; he’s trending in too good of a direction right now. Burns won’t necessarily model well, given that he seems to be very hot and cold. He has had amazing rounds, followed up by mediocrity in almost every tournament this year. He reminds me of Rory McIlroy earlier this year; he just couldn’t get all four rounds together in a single weekend.

The tee-to-green game has been trending upward over his last five starts, gaining an average of 3.3 strokes. His approach game fell off a little last week at the Memorial Tournament, but I like that his around-the-green game picked up the slack, gaining 4.3 strokes. Players will miss the greens at Pinehurst Resort & Country Club Course No. 2, and I want a player coming in with creative and successful short games.

If Burn’s approach game rebounds this week and he keeps the short game rolling, he could win this going away. Cross your fingers that we get four consistent rounds, and he will be right there come Sunday.

Brian Campbell (+100000)

Brian Campbell is a Korn Ferry Tour (KFT) Player who is having a great year that we will begin seeing a lot more of next season on the PGA Tour. Campbell has the distinction of finishing as the low amateur in his last US Open appearance at Chambers Bay. He is coming off a -5 under US Open qualifier at Duke University Golf Club last week to get into the tournament this year. 

Though not the longest golfer in the field, he makes up for it by being incredibly accurate. He is ranked 10th on the KFT for driving accuracy at 73.4% of fairways hit. He is also 12th on the KFT for greens in regulation at an elite 76.9%. The around-the-green and recovery stats are a nice compliment, as well as scrambling to par or better 65.7% of the time.

He also has a residence in the Carolinas, which could prove beneficial when negotiating the waste bunkers and tight lies the players will see this week. This seems like a crazy misprice to me, not only on the outright at 1000/1 but also in the placement prop market listed below. This is a player having a hugely successful year on the KFT with 11 cuts made in 13 starts, yielding him five T25s, including two T10s and a runner-up in a playoff. He has accuracy, scrambling and an around-the-green game! I think we have a live longshot for the US Open.

Bonus Bets to Consider on Brian Campbell:

Other Outright Bets That are on My Card for the US Open 2024:

Check out all of our content for the US Open 2024:

Thanks for reading my best bets for the US Open 2024, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole! Good luck this week! Also, follow me on Twitter/X @Cough_DFS for more PGA betting and DFS advice.

*Photo Credit: Ray Acevedo – USA TODAY Sports*

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