“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, College Football, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This edition’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the BMW Championship 2024.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
BMW Championship 2024 Betting Picks
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)
Hideki Matsuyama is coming in scorching hot! He really wasn’t on my radar for last week, knowing I thought he was an exceedingly better fit this week for Castle Pines Golf Club. This course has a very Augusta National feel, and Matsuyama has had an excellent history there, including a win. He is not at the top of the model this week, but he rates out exceedingly well in the approach metrics I’m looking at and has gained 5.7 strokes on approach at the FedEx St. Jude.
The irons are hot – the putter is even hotter. Matsuyama was dialed in, making almost everything he looked at, and gained 8.2 strokes on the greens. His full game was on display, which is precisely what we need from a player this week. I’ll go back to the well on a red-hot Matsuyama coming off of a win last week!
Wyndham Clark (+2500)
Colorado Native Wyndham Clark is one of my favorite outright bets this week. I also like the first-round leader bet at 25-1. He knows golf at elevation and is familiar with this area, growing up just about 25 minutes north of Castle Pines. I like him to get out to a fast start and build on it over four days. His form has been very hit-and-miss this season, but he seems to be peaking at the right time, fresh off a seventh-place finish at the FedEx St. Jude.
Clark is long off the tee, averaging 313 yards, which should lend itself to short irons and wedges for most approach shots here. He rates out No. 4 in this field from wedge range, which is complemented by his No. 13 opportunities-gained ranking. The greens will be firm and fast and have some tricky runoffs, so I prefer players who have the wedge in hand more often than not and can stop it and stick it close.
He also rates out 16th in the field for scrambling and saving par. As good as these golfers are, they will have to scramble occasionally, and Clark can hang with the best of them. We have seen Clark coming before and cashed in; I think this is another situation where the writing is on the wall.
Shane Lowry (+6500)
Shane Lowry is playing some sneaky good golf. He has five T10s this season, and two of those are T5s. He also only missed the cut twice this season and has been striping the ball on approach. I was surprised to find him rating out No. 10 overall for me. I was more surprised to see him at the No. 8 spot for strokes gained approach and, specifically, No. 3 overall on approach from 125-150 yards out. That number matters for Lowry, who is slightly shorter off the tee than some golfers. The majority of approach shots are going to come from his sweet spot.
He also rates out fourth for sticking the ball close and giving himself a look at birdie or better. Lowry isn’t afraid to scramble and grind it out to avoid bogey, and he rates out inside the top 10 there. There are lots of spots where sand comes directly into play, and he rates out 12th in sand save percentage over the last 24 rounds. Castle Pines will take the full bag to win, and Lowry is bringing the well-rounded game to compete and win here.
Other Outright Bets That are on My Card for the BMW Championship 2024:
- Rory McIlroy (+1200) – I love the course fit. Don’t be afraid of his performance last week. The winning upside is there.
- Collin Morikawa (+1400)
- Viktor Hovland (+1800)
- Russell Henley (+3500)
- Nick Dunlap (+6000)
- Matthieu Pavon (+15000)
*Scottie Scheffler at (+330) is not a horrible bet. My advice is to live bet him at a better number after round 1 or round 2.*
Check out all of our content for the BMW Championship 2024:
Thanks for reading my best bets for the BMW Championship 2024. Follow me on Twitter/X @Cough_DFS for more golf takes, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole! Good luck this week!
*Photo Credit: John David Mercer – USA TODAY Sports*