Welcome to our “Survivor 50” Episode 12 recap + castaway betting odds!
The end game takes shape, one castaway struggles with the idea of playing his idol and there is an inconceivable ending to the immunity challenge.
Let’s head back to Fiji for yet another double boot episode!
(Warning: Spoilers Ahead)
“Survivor 50” Episode 12 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds
Episode Recap
Camp Life
The first group returns to camp, fresh off the 2-2-2 vote where Emily ultimately went home 4-2 on the revote. They’re surprised to see that Ozzy does not return with the second group. Rizo says that Ozzy put his foot in his mouth and that he was a sinking ship. Rizo also hopes that it leaves Cirie needing him more.
The next morning before dawn, Rick is up and about looking for an idol. The other players notice, and Jonathan starts to follow him in the woods. Rick is still public enemy #1, which is great news for Aubry, as the focus on Rick takes heat off of her.
Immunity Challenge #1
At the immunity challenge, players use a rope to balance a wobbly table while stacking letter blocks. The letter blocks must spell out “immunity.” The castaways are also competing for a reward of: bbq ribs, cornbread, beans, and potato salad.
Tiffany and Aubry build an early lead, but their blocks fall and they both need to start again. Joe takes a more methodical approach, and remains stoic as his fellow competitors continue to drop their blocks. Joe wins immunity, and wins a spot in the Final Six! Joe gets to pick two castaways to take on the reward, and he picks Cirie and Rizo.
Pre-Tribal Camp Life
On the reward, Rizo, Joe and Cirie discuss Rick as a big threat to win this game. Rizo debates the merits of holding versus playing his idol. Tiffany wants Rizo out the game, as she thinks he will just hold onto his idol and take up a spot in the Final Four. Tiffany pitches this to Jonathan and Rick, who are interested, but she makes the mistake of pitching it to Cirie, who is hesitant. Cirie thinks that Rick needs to go home.
Tribal Council #1
The castaways arrive at tribal, and Jeff asks Joe about the reward, as Joe intentionally brought people who hadn’t been on a reward in a long time. Tiffany calls out Rizo for wasting his food during the auction. When asked about the vote, Aubry states that “the most important part of the game is figuring out the timing.”
Rick gets emotional in his questioning from Jeff, reflecting on what “Survivor” means to him. He expresses his gratitude to his family for letting him come out to Fiji again to play.
The players vote, and when advantages are called for, Rizo does not play his idol. Rick stands and plays his shot in the dark. It lands on… Not Safe! Rick goes home unanimously 6-0.
Camp Life
The Final Six return to camp, and Aubry begins to pitch Tiffany as the next vote to Jonathan. Jonathan tells Rizo about the move to take out Tiffany next, but Rizo leaks it to Cirie. Cirie is not on board to take out Tiffany, nor was she to vote out Rizo the round before. Even though Cirie is still viewed as a big threat, she still has influence with each vote.
Immunity Challenge #2
In the second immunity challenge, the castaways must climb through an obstacle, and then carry blocks across a balance beam. Once they carry all ten blocks across, they can start on their block arch puzzle. The goal is to spell the word: “inconceivable,” but the players do not know what the word is, they only have the letters.
Jonathan, Aubry, Rizo and Joe all work together to try and figure out what the word is. They finally land on “inconceivable,” and Jonathan and Joe complete their puzzle at the same time. However, in inconceivable fashion, they both spell “inconceivable” wrong. Tiffany, one of the last to the blocks, spells it right and wins immunity!
Pre-Tribal Camp Life
Tiffany’s immunity win changes many players’ plans, as she was the primary target here. Rizo and Aubry discuss a Cirie vote, and Rizo says Cirie is like the mafia. They both acknowledge how difficult it would be to win against Cirie. Rizo and Jonathan agree that Cirie is the best target here.
Cirie has a sinking feeling that she could be the vote here. She wants Aubry out, and Tiffany is willing to vote for Aubry. Cirie goes to Jonathan and says that Aubry leaked to her what Rizo actually did. Jonathan is tentative, but expresses interest in voting out Aubry.
Tribal Council #2
The castaways arrive at their second tribal of the episode, and the tensions are high, 99/100 high, according to Aubry. Rizo says there isn’t a consensus vote here, and that they’re all there to become the sole survivor and win $2,000,000. Jeff points out that both Aubry and Cirie have made it very far into the game multiple times.
The players vote, with Aubry voting for Cirie and Cirie for Aubry. Rizo, yet again, does not play his idol. Cirie is voted out 4-2, with Tiffany also voting for Aubry. Everyone gives Cirie their respects on the way out, and Jeff even lets her say “the tribe has spoken.”
Cirie was clearly the strongest player on the “Survivor 50” cast. The way she connected with her fellow castaways, plus hid and leveraged information, was absolutely masterful. Had Ozzy played his idol the previous round, maybe Cirie would have had more of a path to the end. But, like it was before, her time was cut just short as she was too big a threat.
Survivor 50 Castaway Betting Odds
For the final time this season, I’ll rank and pair the remaining “Survivor 50” castaways with betting odds to win the game. These odds are subject to change after each episode. When castaways are eliminated, edits become clearer. As a result, win equities will diverge, and odds will become more favorable to some and less favorable to others.
Aubry takes the top spot, and by a considerable margin. The edit is giving us a clear Aubry winners edit. She has a confessional every episode, personal growth and now has multiple big moves on her resume. The edit also points out the flaws in Joe’s game, and does not glorify Jonathan in the way that it does Aubry.
Rizo stays the same for me, odds-wise. I just do not think he will command jury respect from anyone besides Cirie or Ozzy if he makes the end. He says he has strong relationships, but besides his relationship with Cirie, they are not as fleshed out as the ones he had in “Survivor 49.” Tiffany can win this game, but needs to comp out in a sense.
Joe stays on the bottom for me yet again; he is clearly getting a third-place edit.
- Aubry Bracco (+125)
- Jonathan Young (+325)
- Rizo Velovic (+400)
- Tiffany Ervin (+600)
- Joe Hunter (+1200)
Top Five Baby!
“Top five, baby!” The phrase coined by the great Tony Vlachos in “Survivor Cagayan” rings true here, even as we are down to the Final Five, but the order still matters. The five most impactful castaways this episode and moving forward, in my eyes, are as follows:
Aubry Bracco
Aubry inherits the top spot from Cirie, and her odds skyrocket yet again. I have her at +125 to win. She loses a close ally in Rick Devens, but takes out Cirie Fields and continues to build her relationship with Jonathan. Aubry bided her time, made the necessary connections she needed to survive and is now thriving in the end game. Her biggest obstacles are Tiffany continuing to win competitions, or Jonathan or Joe winning Final Immunity and taking the other to Final Tribal Council, leaving Aubry to make fire to earn her spot in the end.
Jonathan Young
Jonathan jumps Rizo here, as I think he would do well with some of the older school players in a jury vote. I see Jonathan potentially securing Coach, Chrissy and Stephanie’s jury votes. If he isn’t there with Joe, I think Joe will also vote for him. I do think he will struggle to explain his game strategically at Final Tribal Council if he makes it there, and so I have him significantly lower than Aubry in terms of winner odds. But Jonathan recovered well from losing his closest allies in the early merge, and he has a compelling story.
Rizo Velovic
Rizo maintains his spot. Like in “Survivor 49,” he has sat on his idol, sometimes to the disdain of other players. I would have liked to see Rizo be more proactive with it and make a move to further his position in the game. However, Rizo did correctly let Cirie and Ozzy go, as they both would have beat him, but the way he did it was very laissez-faire and did not look like his move. In addition, this is a returnee season and an older cast. I fear if Rizo makes the Final Tribal Council, he will struggle to relate to many of the older players on the jury.
Tiffany Ervin
Welcome to the Top Five, Tiffany! Yes, this is the Final Five, but, a welcome is still appropriate. Tiffany has a strong underdog story, according to her fellow players. To the viewers? She was under-edited for so much of the first half of the game that I think she has to go out in fourth or fifth place. She is cooked if she does not win immunity. Tiffany is clearly a strong player in every facet of the game; I just wish we viewers were able to see more of that earlier in the game.
Joe Hunter
Joe keeps the bottom spot here. He wins the Final Seven immunity and takes out his arch nemesis Rick. However, I don’t think Joe can own a single move here on “Survivor 50” and his game was stronger on “Survivor 48.” His gameplay may be admirable, but his perception as an irritable non-strategic player hurts him a lot here. As great of a person as he is, he is not a strong “Survivor” player, and I am fairly certain he will be a third-place finisher for a second time.
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