Welcome to our “Survivor 50” Episode 9 recap + castaway betting odds!
Another celebrity advantage is introduced to the game, Jeff Probst competes in the challenge and a fan-favorite is voted out.
It’s time to hop on the boat and head back over to Fiji.
(Warning: Spoilers Ahead)
“Survivor 50” Episode 9 Recap + Castaway Betting Odds
Episode Recap
Camp Life
The castaways return to camp, and Rick is giddy from the success of his idol fakeout. Rick does confide in Emily that his idol is fake, even though many are convinced he has one. Emily is upset at Rick for putting their alliance at risk with this play, as it’s increased the target on the Rick-Christian-Emily group.
Ozzy and Rizo discuss the aftermath of tribal, and agree that Rick’s idol play was a dumb move. In addition, with all the attention on Rick now, the idols that Ozzy and Rizo have are less threatening. Cirie finds herself in a really good spot, as she’s aligned with Rizo and Ozzy, and the “Cila Four,” consisting of Christian, Cirie, Emily and Rick. She states that “it’s good to have options on Survivor,” and boy does she have them! Joe and Jonathan want to stick together and hope that the “good people” can weather this. I’m not sure what exactly they mean by “good people,” but both of them were heroic characters in their original “Survivor” seasons.
Next, we get more thoughts from Aubry. Aubry is my dark-horse winner contender, as she is always present, even though she is not in control of the game. Aubry wants to distance herself from Rick, as she believes the two of them are viewed as a pair, considering they both played on “Survivor: Edge of Extinction” and paired up for the Double Duo twist in the previous episode.
Finally, we get more from Christian. He and Emily are surprised that people are buying Rick’s fake idol is actually a real one. Christian wants to do damage control with Jonathan and Stephenie, and we get this awkward scene on the beach where Christian approaches Jonathan, Stephenie and Joe. The conversation has no substance, no assurances moving forward and no real back-and-forth. Jonathan wants Christian out, as Christian offered Jonathan his Shot In the Dark to regain trust. Christian’s target? Ozzy. He thinks Ozzy is playing the middle, and this is the perfect time to take him out with his idol in his pocket. Christian makes the mistake of telling this to Cirie, who leaks it straight back to Ozzy.
Immunity Challenge
Today’s challenge is a “Survivor” classic. Players hold onto a handle connected by a line to a bucket worth 25% of your pre-game body weight. Last person with their bucket up wins immunity. But… there’s a twist! Jeff offers rice to the castaways in a friendly wager. Jeff Probst, for the first time in “Survivor” history, will be competing in an immunity challenge. He asks for five castaways to compete against him, and if all five can beat him, the tribe will win a large bag of rice. Only four volunteer, but Jeff still takes them up on it.
Ozzy, Joe, Tiffany and Jonathan must outlast Jeff to win rice for the tribe. The castaways playfully mock and banter with Jeff, and five minutes in, he begins to struggle. Jeff drops out before any of the castaways, and they win the rice! Among the castaways, the challenge quickly gets down to just Ozzy and Joe. Joe has incredible grip strength and barely looks like he is breaking a sweat, while Ozzy struggles to hang on. Ozzy eventually drops, and Joe wins individual immunity and a spot in the Final Ten!
Journey
At the end of the immunity challenge, Jeff says that one player must go on a journey. This player will return to camp this afternoon before tribal. Four castaways volunteer to go on the journey and participate in rock, paper, scissors to see who will go. The winner is Christian!
Christian arrives by boat at a floating dock in the ocean. On the dock is a jigsaw puzzle in the shape of the Survivor logo. Jimmy Fallon provides a note to Christian to describe what he is competing for. If Christian completes the puzzle before the timer runs out, he will win the Jimmy Fallon “One in the Urn” advantage, which allows Christian to cast a vote for tribal right then and there. If Christian cannot complete it, he is given a letter and must read it back at camp.
Christian struggles with the puzzle and is unable to complete it in time. He returns to camp and has to read his letter aloud in front of the tribe. Because Christian failed the journey, he must write down his own name at Tribal Council tonight.
Pre-Tribal Camp Life
The castaways make the rice won during immunity, and Emily and Cirie argue about the portion sizes. Tiffany tells Rick that his name is out and to play his idol, as other castaways are “shooketh” by him. Jonathan and Rizo both push a Christian vote, as they both believe he is the most dangerous player here.
Emily pushes an Ozzy vote to Cirie and Tiffany, as this is the perfect time to take out Ozzy with an idol in his pocket. Tiffany and Cirie leak this to Ozzy, and Tiffany passionately wants Emily out of the game. We head to tribal, and it seems one of Rick, Christian, Emily or Ozzy will be going home.
Tribal Council
Tribal begins, and we see Coach looking debonair, sporting a silver suit. Christian tells Jeff that he has a “vote of shame” and that “Christian will be voting for… Christian.” Rick states that he will be playing his idol tonight, and that his philosophy on the game is that every day is a reset on “Survivor.” When asked about the vote, Tiffany says, “There’s always multiple plans and multiple agendas, and you won’t know the best one until the votes are read.”
The players vote, and Christian begrudgingly casts a vote for himself. Christian is voted out 6-3-2, with Rick receiving three votes and Ozzy receiving two. On his way out, Jonathan returns Christian’s Shot in the Dark to him.
Christian was such a big and memorable strategist and character this season. It was disappointing to see him leave, especially considering he was the betting odds favorite for many episodes. However, he was unable to make the bonds needed at the merge to propel him into the mid-stages of the merge, let alone the endgame.
Survivor 50 Castaway Betting Odds
Each week, I’ll rank and pair the remaining “Survivor 50” castaways with betting odds to win the game. These odds are subject to change after each episode. When castaways are eliminated, edits become clearer. As a result, win equities will diverge, and odds will become more favorable to some and less favorable to others.
After tonight’s episode, I’ve solidified Cirie in my top spot over Rizo. The information flow she is privy to without being clocked is absolutely incredible. She is working with everyone, with the exception of Aubry. Taking Christian out curried favor with Stephenie, Jonathan and Joe, players who were looking for a home in this game. Rizo did speak up here and say that Christian needed to go, but Cirie keeps receiving information first before Rizo.
Aubry is bumped up to fourth solely based on receiving strategic content in her confessionals. Aubry is not well-positioned in this game, but she is present every single episode. Emily was my original dark-horse winner contender, but this has shifted towards Aubry. I was tempted to rank Emily even lower and give her worse odds, but people keep giving her information and haven’t taken action against her despite the fact that she’s messy.
Finally, I will articulate why I have Joe so low. Joe is connected; he is seen as present in conversations with power players like Ozzy and Cirie, and the jocks like Stephenie and Jonathan. However, he has limited agency, as he’s wanted Rick out for ages and has not accomplished that, and he also did not want to send Coach home. Joe is a loyal player, and I expect him to make it far in this game. However, he is not seen as a strategic presence, and so his win equity is fairly low.
- Cirie Fields (+325)
- Rizo Velovic (+375)
- Ozzy Lusth (+650)
- Aubry Bracco (+800)
- Rick Devens (+1000)
- Emily Flippen (+1050)
- Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick (+1500)
- Jonathan Young (+1600)
- Tiffany Ervin (+2000)
- Joe Hunter (+2500)
Top Five Baby!
“Top five, baby!” The phrase coined by the great Tony Vlachos in “Survivor Cagayan” rings true here and will throughout the season. The five most impactful castaways this episode and moving forward, in my eyes, are as follows:
Cirie Fields
Cirie grabs my top spot here based on her strong relationships. I am still worried she could lose the game at the Final Five or Final Four fire, but I am really struggling to see how she gets voted out before then when there are bigger threats and better challenge competitors. The reason she jumps Rizo is purely because of the information she has, and her connections to players Rizo is not as connected to, like Emily and Tiffany.
Rizo Velovic
Rizo drops to second here, but his odds to win improve with Christian leaving the game. Rizo sends his ideal target home here and continues to have significant visibility while not being seen as threatening. This was not his strongest episode, but he keeps his idol and is still protected in the game.
Ozzy Lusth
Although Ozzy gets clocked by Emily for playing the middle, it is immediately leaked back to him, and credit must be given to Ozzy for his social bonds and loyal gameplay. If Ozzy can continue to ride the middle between Jonathan and Stephenie, and Cirie and Rizo, I am struggling to see how a majority will form to vote him out of the game anytime soon. Not to mention, Ozzy still has an idol. My fear for him and reason to rank him below Rizo and Cirie is that he is not seen as a strategic decision-maker. However, we could be looking at a second-place finish for Ozzy.
Aubry Bracco
Welcome to the Top Five, Aubry! My pre-season winner pick was Emily Flippen, but she is too messy and is not well-connected enough. Aubry is my new dark-horse winner pick. She continues to receive strategic confessionals, she tries to make new allies and her threat level has dipped a bit after burning her public idol. She builds a connection with Jonathan in this episode that could be impactful down the line, as both of them need new allies.
Rick Devens
Rick rounds out the Top Five, Baby, but I do not feel confident in Rick’s edit. I just feel less confident with the remaining five players. I think Rick is polarizing at this point in the game; he will either go home next or make a deep run. I am willing to hedge my bets on him, as he is a crafty player. He also is not a challenge threat, and now that it’s exposed that he does not have an idol, his fellow castaways could mistakenly keep him around.
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