“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This week’s bets feature our favorite wagers for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Picks
Si Woo Kim (+1600)
Si Woo Kim continues to play some of the best golf of his career and now heads to TPC Craig Ranch, where he had a runner-up finish in 2023. This seems like the week for Kim to get it done. He has played excellent golf tee to green over the last 24 rounds, rating out No.1 in my model. He’s been doing quite a bit of damage off the tee in his last 10 starts, but he still rates out No. 10 in approach during that run.
His putter has been a hindrance his entire career, so it’s no surprise he is losing strokes weekly on the green. This week is different, though, with minimal correlation to success involving the putter or around-the-green game. It might explain how he rose to the occasion last year at this course. In even better form than he was last time around, I love Si Woo Kim to get the win at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson!
Byeong Hun An (+2500)
I have been waiting to bet Byeong Hun An seriously until this week. An has been playing great golf, but I wanted a wide open course to emphasize his distance and precision approach game. He rates out No.4 in driving distance, and there is very little penalty for missing the fairway at TPC Craig Ranch. Byeong An is No.4 in opportunities gained, and these greens are even more receptive than they were in his last few starts. Considering the weather conditions this week, they are looking to be increasingly receptive.
Much like Kim, An is not the world’s best putter, so risk is involved. He has one start at this course, resulting in a tie for 14th last year. If he can’t get it done here, I’m not sure where he can get it done this season. The time is now for An.
Matti Schmid (+8000)
Matti Schmid had a bit of a slow start to the season. I was high on him coming in this year, but that hasn’t worked out thus far. He is showing signs of rounding into form over his last six starts. He has four finishes inside of the top 21, one being 10th in Puerto Rico and 11th last week at The Corales Puntacana Championship.
The German is fourth overall in my modeling this week, propelled by his ability to make tons of birdies and not give strokes back. He’s No. 1 in birdie-or-better rate in this field. He’s No. 3 in strokes gained par-4s from 400-450 yards, which is the majority of the par-4s at TPC Craig Ranch. He also came inside the top 13 for par-5 scoring. His best approach range is the 175-200+ yards, rating out No. 2 overall. This range comprises the majority of the approach shots these players will hit here. I think Schmid may be one of the best values in this entire field
Andrew Novak (+9000)
Andrew Novak is mispriced. I won’t tell the books, but I won’t be passing on 90/1. Novak has been playing excellent with three T10s in his last seven starts, and only one missed cut over that stretch; he is definitely in form.
He was one of our favorites last week at the Zurich Classic. His team started strong and hung in to finish tied for 23rd. I’m not putting a ton of stock into an awkward formatted team event, but he continued to look good, carrying Davis Thompson at times. There’s a lot to like about how Novak sets up here. He rates No. 9 for strokes gained tee-to-green, No. 9 for strokes gained approach, No. 2 for the key approach range and No. 5 in bogey avoidance.
His distance rating is a bit misleading, as he averages over 300 yards off the tee. So, he’s not the longest hitter but not short by any means. His putter can be streaky, but much like the rest of my card, I’m not worried about it here. His long-distance approach game will more than makeup for any putting issues when he knocks it stiff from 200 yards out all week!
Other Outright Bets That are on My Card for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024:
- Adam Scott (+2200)
- Keith Mitchell (+3500)
- Aaron Rai (+5500)
- Jake Knapp (+8000)
- Sami Valimaki (+13000)
- Bud Cauley (+9000)
Check out all of our content for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024
- PGA DFS: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024
- PropKings: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024
- Between Bets: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 Outrights
Thanks for reading my best bets for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole! Good luck this week!
*Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports*
